Pakistani Tactical nuclear missiles deployed close to Indian Borders

Pakistani Tactical nuclear missiles deployed close to Indian Borders

Satellite pictures confirmed that atleast six Nasr Tactical missiles deployed in Gujranwala, Pakistan. Each Nasr can carry four missiles. The deployment consists of four launcher comprising twenty four missiles, ammunition bunkers and support systems. Gujranwala is 80km off from Indian borders, where Nasr's full range is 60 kilometers.

The tactical missile deployment recently get operational status, after series of ground works completed to house those missiles. Recent upgrades in Google imagery unveiled the new constructions and operational deployment of those missiles. Since they were placed in the open field for an induction ceremony.

Normally those launchers kept under fortified hangers. which keeps alive those missiles from airstrikes. The satellite pictures reveals two large hardened garages in the suspected area. which can keep three launchers in one garage.  both of them interconnected each other and the ammunition bunkers situated few meters away from the launch pad.

The base still in expansion, suggests new constructions and launch pads inside the compound. the main launch area has two launch pads. while another area had five launch pads connected with five separate garages. Each of those garages can accommodate two Nasr batteries. Satellite pictures also clearly shows Tyre marks between the launch pad and garage shows regular exercises has been happening in the base.

Another complex in the same compound looks like base administration buildings, buildings for troop accommodation, command and control centers. Which gives quick access to the crew to reach the launch pads and garage area.

Nasr is considered as a nuclear missile, used to counter the Indian cold start doctrine, The doctrine explains quick mobilization of massive Indian army close to the International border, further step inside Pakistan.

Pakistan uses the Nasr missile for reliability since it's shorter range that means sixty kilometers. Nasr is single stage missile, and carries upto five kilotons of nuclear warhead.

The above information are good enough to prove that Pakistan must use the nuclear missiles. in case of any border conflict with Pakistan. Those missiles can be used, if Indian soldiers march inside Pakistan. Those missiles are well close to Indian cities that means hundred kilometer from Jammu and 80 kilometers from Amritsar.

India have better option to counter the Pakistani tactical nuclear threats.To counter the Nasr launch IAF should conduct a preemptive air strike on those location. Since the deployed area is small and can be marked using GPS/LGB guided bombs. IAF need bunker busting bombs to destroy those launchers. Since they were kept under hardened concrete shelters.

Normal High Explosive heavy bombs will not penetrate such shelters. IAF may use the Jaguar fighters from Amritsar Air force base. IAF already had few Bunker busting LGB's bought from US major Lockheed Martin. Some reports mentions IAF bough one hundred bunker busting GBU 28 Paveway III LBG bombs. However there is no details available about additional procurement.

It's believed, few of the home made Sudharshan LGB's also had penetration capability to strike hardened shelters. By assessment IAF need more than twenty five Jaguar bomber each armed with three LGB's to destroy the key infrastructure in the Gujranwala Tactical deployment base.

Below is the Google map of Gujranwala Tactical deployment base.

Thanks to Raj 47

Understanding the nuclear Deterrence

Understanding the nuclear Deterrence

Nuclear weapons are known as the last sword to save the country before falling into enemy's hand, Nuclear weapons are considered as weapons of mass destruction, since they destroy large volume of area, more than that it makes the land inaccessible for humans for more than centuries, due to the radioactive materials continuously emit radio waves which can harm humans.

Nuclear weapons are considered as suicide weapon. also a self defense weapon too, if the enemy nation too posses the nuclear weapon, it could be used for self defense. Both can use the nuclear weapons  in case of anyone launched and vice versa. That's the reason why many nations instructed themselves by not using the nuclear weapons first. No first usage policy is commonly refereed term.

Meanwhile if the enemy nation do not have nuclear weapon, one can easily threaten the enemy with load of dossiers, just like how North Korean dictator Kim Jong repeatedly threatens the non nuclear pacific nations. Unlike in Indo-China-Pakistani theater all posses nuclear weapons. except Pakistan,  India and China had nuclear weapons in safe hand and No first usage policy.

When comes to Pakistan, the rough terrorist regime, who threatens India with tactical nuclear weapons to counter the Indian cold start military movement doctrine. The doctrine simply understand as "March towards Islam-a-bad" . Pakistan reports they can stop the Indian forces using the tactical nuclear weapons if they crossed the border.

Here Pakistan has a less powerful nuclear deterrence compared to India. If Pakistan conduct a nuclear strike against India, with the barrage of some 40 to 60 missiles with nuclear warheads. India may face huge casualty and India can lost many cities.

One has to be understand, those known missile defense systems will not work effectively due to the barrage of multiple launches. Pakistan can use their low yield short range nuclear missiles over India. Pakistan can achieve 20% of successful launches. Since 80% of the missiles can be either intercepted by AD system or launch failure, or missile malfunctions.

In retaliation, India can launch another barrage of some 100 missiles over Pakistan each targets major Pakistani cities with the hit probability of some 80%. with the huge Strike from India, Pakistan can be pushed back to ancient age and can be inaccessible for another some 200 or more years.

The reason why India boosting it's conventional capabilities to fight against Pakistan, In the limited conventional war India can defeat Pakistan. even with low friendly causalities. However Pakistan can use their lands and peoples can live there without any issues even losing to India in a conventional war. the same not available if they planned for a WMD usage.

It's clear, Pakistan can continuously black mail India, while not performing a one, Since all those Pakistani nuclear missiles are always tracked by different nations Intelligence wing as well as Indian intelligence too. They were placed within the strike range of Indian fighter aircraft's. Suppose any conditions Pakistan tries to launch a nuke missile, India can conduct a preemptive air strike targeting those launch pads.

The same can be switched towards Chinese point of view, China has large conventional fire power as well as Nuclear fire power compared to India, India will not pose any serious nuke threats to China, since India knows then the outcome from China may larger than assume in an nuclear war. with the massive number of arsenal, China can take out more than 50 top cities in India, where India can take out some 20 to 25 Top Chinese cities with nuke strikes.

Results can favor to China only, where they can capable to withstand from Indian nuke attack but not us. Moreover China has large significant military fire power, while India too have, both maintain no first usage policy too. So the Indo China war could be in the conventional field only.

 Those Arihant series also as part of nuclear deterrence, If massive first wave of Chinese nuke strike disabled all ground launching and air launching capability. Those Arihants can retaliate the Chinese launch, This is a example of Suicide weapon.  On the other side, If India takes out Pakistani nuclear launching capability in first wave of attack, Pakistan has no option to retaliate. That Pakistan must understand before blackmailing India with nuke threats.

Pakistani claim of RAW agent Capture

Pakistan claimed RAW agent arrest

   Pakistani sources claimed that a man was arrested last day in Baluchistan is an Indian agent, who working on clandestine operation against the Pakistani forces in occupied Baluchistan. Indian side confirmed that he was an Ex Naval officer who was on premature retirement, But never said anything about his involvement in Indian premier intelligence agency RAW. 

Pakistan get a chance to cry on the international media, about Indian activity in occupied Baluchistan, that India working on clandestine operation against Pakistan to liberate Baluchistan from Pakistan. Pakistani officials reported in the media, the suspected Indian arrested in southern Baluchistan, where Pakistani army carrying out genocide operation against it's own Peoples in the name of killing terrorists.

As a neutral point of view, that anyone can easily claim, if a foreign national captured inside a conflict zone, his identity in armed forces is also a strong evidence that he is doing sabotage operations against the enemy. Here also the Indian naval officer trapped, and caught inside the conflict zone.

One more, when agents doing works inside enemy territory they usually carries multiple passports and identity cards. Also he had no fire arms and other equipment, Usually agents are highly trained to escape in any tough scenario's, so they must have a pistol or an knife, Pakistan failed to show any proof of fire arms or any weapons from the officers pocket.

Pakistan crying since years, that Indian and Afghan intelligence working closely to carryout clandestine operation against the Pakistan army, They also assisting the militia group named Balouch Republic army. However they have no proper evidences to claim their words. This is the only option to cover their faces.

India formally replied to the Pakistani claiming of arresting the Navy officer, The said individual has no link with government since his premature retirement from Indian Navy. We have sought consular access to him. India has no interest in interfering in internal matters of any country and firmly believes that a stable and peaceful Pakistan is in the interest of all in the region," the Ministry of External Affairs said.

Sources confirmed that, The officer's surname is Mr.Yadav who is a ex commander of Indian Navy. He get premature retirement from the Navy, and he has no more connection to the government works. 

Pakistani media claimed that the alleged Indian officer moved to Islam-a-bad for further investigation, they also claimed they recovered some maps of strategic zones in Pakistan. 

Some other propaganda peoples works on full swing to claim that he is an Indian Agent, the Agent worked under the code name of Hussein Mubarak Patel, the name also in the Passport says Hussein, who is deployed in Iranian Chabar port, that India currently working on to establish a major Port for economics. 

They also reported that the officer was showing his identity as a Indian and having the Iranian visa stamp, that he might infiltrate into Pakistan from Iranian border. however it's not confirmed so far by the officials. 

Chinese army spotted in Indo Pakistani border

Chinese army spotted in Indo-Pakistani border

Intelligence sources confirmed that the presence of Chinese army officials who closely working with the Pakistani army near to the Indo-Pakistani line of control. The boundary which divides the Pakistani occupied Kashmir from India. Military intelligence found the Chinese army officers near to the border since last six months.

The Chinese aka People Liberation Army officials spotted few days ago, near to the Nowgam sector in North Kashmir, where troops of PLA led by a colonel working with the Pakistani rangers in the Pakistani border outpost.

Intelligence wing also found that both PLA and PA working close to the boundaries to construct some infrastructures close to the border, Earlier reports revealed Pakistan planned to raise two platoons of troops in Pakistani occupied Kashmir to patrol and secure the Chinese Silk road.

Pakistan recently planned to deploy such large forces in occupied Kashmir, which creates issues on both sides, However the plan is still in the starting phase. In the name of securing the silk road Pakistan planning to deploy such large forces,

During a war, China and Pakistan can attack India easily via this road, both can deploy massive number troops near to this region within a matter of time. they also get unlimited supply from either Pakistan or Chinese side. as Indian options India always tries to target the Karakoram pass, which connects Pakistan and China together.





Army intelligence who acquired data from satellite, communication interception, and manned mission found that China also building a tunnel in the Leepa Valley in Occupied Kashmir, to reach the Karakoram pass, If India took out the Karakoram pass during the first wave of attack, China can use this tunnels to reach Pakistan or vice versa. Some sources said that they working in the region for the past six months.

As a third spotting, last year, Chinese military units spotted in a Hydroelectric power plant in Tangdhar, Occupied Kashmir, A Chinese private company currently building the Power plant to the Pakistan with Jhelum river as the main source. this is another excuse to the Chinese to deploy their ground forces in Occupied Kashmir.

As China almost encircled India, India also trying to find the path to counter the Chinese with International assistance, while India needs to start almost everything from scratch, and it needs lots of time and cost to materialize it.

China warned many times India, to do not join with the south Pacific nations, and wants to isolate India from the anti-Chinese alliance, However, India managed to check the Chinese from all available sides, from south China sea, Arunachal and Eastern Ladakh, India stands strong to counter the Chinese influence.

Closing Ties, Russia and Pakistan prepares Joint Military Exercise

Closing Ties, Russia and Pakistan prepares Joint Military Exercise

    Pakistan and Russia once again coming closer by organizing a joint military exercise to validate the tactics and co operation between Russian and Pakistani armed forces, Both were agreed to conduct the first ever joint military exercise in mountains to enhance the relationship between Russia and Pakistan, A step to boost the Russian Pakistani military releationship.

    Russian commander in chief Oleg Salyukov briefed to media that, Russia plans to conduct/join seven joint military exercise with their allies, The major exercises include, Indian Russian Indra, Russian Mongolian Selenga, Russian Vietnam exercise along with the Russian Pakistani mountain drills.  

     The Pakistani's also confirmed the Russian press reports, Saying they were in talks with Russian to boost the military cooperation, they also pointed the recent contract of Mi 35 helicopters to Pakistan.

     Last week a Russian delegation arrived in Islamabad to meet with Pakistani counterparts to discuss about the attack helicopter delivery contract and the planned military drills. The Pakistani military chief Raheel also attended the meet, Sources said some other military deals too negotiated between Pakistan and Russia.

    Russia lifts the Pakistani arms embargo in June 2014, and send it's military leaders to revamp the Pakistani Russian relationship,  later in November Russia and Pakistan signed a bilateral defense cooperation to strengthen military relationship between both countries. In August 2015 Russia and Pakistan signed a deal to procure four Mi 35 attack helicopters with possible follow on orders in future.  

    Pakistan also asked the Russians to supply the Tor M surface to air missile in large numbers, The SAM acquisition program still in negotiations, The new generation mobile air defense batteries can pose serious threat to Indian air force, If IAF plans for a surgical strike inside Pakistan.

    Last year Pakistani Army chief visit Russia to discuss about the possible military sale of those Tor M air defense missile batteries, Pakistan also shown interest in buying the modified Su 35 S for maritime strike missions. Both the Russia and Pakistan confirmed about the possible negotiations for supplying upto 12 Su 35 S to Pakistan.

    It's already reported that Russia also assisting and plans to construct more nuclear power plants in Pakistan, with the assistance from China, Pakistan currently building three new pressurized water reactors.  

Terrorists storm Pakistani University, More than dozens killed

Terrorists storm Pakistani University, More than dozens killed

   Unidentified gunmen entered Bacha Khan University in Khyber Pakhtunkha’s Charsadda town in Pakistan around 9.30 am and opened fire on students and faculty members who had gathered at the school for a poetry recital to commemorate the anniversary of the peace activist whom the institution is named after.

    Mass casualties are feared in the attack reminiscent of the deadly December 2014 terrorist strike on the Army Public School in Peshawar which left over 140 dead — most of them students.

An Edhi volunteer said he has seen the bodies of at least 15 people.

   One Rescue 1122 official said, “The boys section [of the hostel] has been affected. Victims have mostly been hit by bullets.”

   About 3,000 students and 600 guests has gathered at the campus to hear the poetry recital when the gunmen targeted them.

   DIG Saeed Wazir said two attackers have been killed. A professor identified as Dr. Hamid of the Chemistry Department was also among the killed, according to a teacher who survived the attack.

    Security personnel are still entering the school to control the situation. Wazir said most of the students had been rescued but several gunmen remained at large inside the university.

   The remaining terrorists are giving stiff resistance to security forces. Intelligence sources say eight to 10 terrorists are still inside the school.

    The families of students have gathered outside the school. Journalists and all other non-essential personnel have been asked to stay back.

    Emergency has been declared at major hospitals. The district headquarters (DHQ) hospital is treating nine of the injured. As many as 50 people injured were treated on site. Those in critical condition are being shifted to hospitals in Peshawar.

   A teacher told a Geo News anchorman on phone that an explosion had taken place at the campus amid gunfire.

    Pakistan Army helicopters are monitoring the situation to provide better spatial awareness to the forces conducting the operation on ground.

     According to one witness who escaped the terror attack, the gunmen had taken position at the entry points of the university. “I saw three attackers engaged in an exchange of fire with security guards of the university. One was positioned at the roof, another near the corner and the third near the wall.”

   “We rescued the university’s guards and then I saw the attackers engage the arriving police party.”

   Attackers are believed to be on the second and third floors of the campus buildings.

    Shabir Khan, a lecturer in the English department, said he was about to leave the hostel for the department when firing began.

    “Most of the students and staff were in classes when the firing began,” Khan said. “I had no idea about what’s going on but I heard one security official talking on the phone to someone saying many people had been killed or injured.”

from Asia Times

Pakistani Long Range Shaheen III IRBM

Pakistani Long Range Shaheen III IRBM

Shaheen III Missile

    Pakistan recently conducted in house developed Shaheen III Intermediate Range Ballistic missile test firing, Who can strike anywhere in India and covers Israel too. The typical range of Shaheen III is some 2700 kilometers. who carry warheads upto some one Tons. However there is no mention of actual payload capacity. Pakistani sources said the test validates various technical aspects and parameters.

    The Shaheen III is the successor of earlier Shaheen short range ballistic missiles. However many technical aspects comes from the Failed Pakistani space programs. The Shaheen III project is a derivative of Pakistani satellite launch vehicle.

     Pakistani officials said the Shaheen can carry multiple warheads used to defeat the Indian ballistic missile defense shield. This allows Pakistan get credible deterrence against Indian Nuclear missile's. However there is no information of  Pakistani Re entry vehicle program. Pakistan needs to research more to achieve the RV technology. It's clear Pakistani's don't have an RV or MIRV warheads. However they do have heavy one ton nuclear warheads.

    Pakistani officials told the test is against the Indians who is more active in modern thermonuclear projects and the three layer of missile defense systems. The modern Indian Nuclear warhead can be delivered through Submarines, Aircraft's and Ballistic Missile systems. The term called as Nuclear triad. The three layer missile defense system comprised of Israeli Indian Barak 8 based LRSAM, the home grown AAD,PDV and the newly planned S 400 Acquisition from Russia.

   So The Pakistani's need more better delivery options to penetrate Indian defense shield to further perform a nuclear missile attack. The Pakistan has low end of nuclear deliver options. The Pakistani deterrence based on  medium range ballistic missiles and unproven Air launched cruise missiles. Those systems will not have a capacity to penetrate Indian airspace due to dense air defense network and surveillance in India.

   Many analysts confirm the Shaheen III is originally meant for Israel, Who always looks to steal the Pakistani Nuclear warheads. The Israeli's tried twice to perform such missions. One with India another alone. Both are not executed due to lack of ground options from India. Israel destroyed  dream of Iraqi and Syrian Nuclear capability. Pakistan is the only one escaped from the Israeli attack so far. However that will not last long.

   The Israeli Intelligence along with West and Americans who keeps their eye's always over the Pakistani Nuclear warheads. Since the warheads can be easily transported and sold to terrorists. There is a early report in Daily Mail that ISIS is very close to buy a Nuclear warhead from Pakistan.

    The Israeli's also have a good layer of missile defense systems. Which is considered as one of the best systems along with USA. The Ballistic missile defense system comprised with PAC 3 systems, David Sling system and the more powerful long range Arrow ballistic missile defense system. Those missile defense layers can protect each and every inch of the Israeli lands.

Arrow missile defense battery

   Israel do have credible nuclear deterrence, comprised by submarine launched platforms, Air launched platforms and missile launched platforms. The Israeli's using modified Dolphin class submarines. Which is believed to carry Tomahawk missiles armed with Nuclear warheads. However there is no confirmation of the source. Except US president Clinton's mention of Tomahawk missile sale to Israel. It's clear the Dolphins do carry the Popeye cruise missile whose range upto some 1500 km armed with Nuclear warheads. Most of the Israeli nuclear programs are highly classified.

   The Pakistani's are always under watch of Israeli intelligence and the recent Indo Israeli mutual pact's brings India and Israel more closer against the Pakistani's.

    So it's clear the Pakistani long range missiles won't pose a serious threat, When all of the Indian missile defense systems becomes operational.     

The Pakistani Dream of Second Strike Capablity

The Pakistani Dream of Second Strike Capability

      Recently Pakistani media dawn published that Pakistan already possessed second strike Capability, without mentioning the launching platform, ex Pakistani defense secretary Lt.Gen Khalid informed this in a seminar conducted by strategic vision institute, before talking about such capability one must understand what is second strike capability, If a country attacked by preemptive nuclear strike in a first wave of attack, the country's all strategic based weapons and it's support systems will be compromised, they have no options left to counter the first strike, So they need a overseas territory or an sea based moving platforms that can launch Nuclear missiles,

     The known best option is the Submarine based second strike capability, even with the Submarine based Nuclear missiles, you need guidance from satellites too, the Submarine should communicate with satellites for launching the missile, country owned Navigational Satellite systems also must needed for Second strike capability, the Submarine based second strike option is very expensive, once the launch code initiated by the Country's Strategic forces command, the Submarine will launch the missiles within the second, means almost all SSBN are armed with ready to fire missile, unlike land based other assets.

      For First Strike, one must use the Land based Silo or TEL launchers to launch the Nuclear missile, with full superiority of support access, means the country gets Navigational support and guidance for better accuracy, the missile also targets the country's strategic positions only, also no one willing to launch a single nuclear missile, the first strike comes with ripple launch of missiles targeting major economic and Military positions, makes sure that they will not able to launch a counter strike, so the suffered country need an another option to counter the first strike, that's where it's comes the Second Strike Option.

     The Second strike would need as much as fire power to pose a serious nuclear attack, in a Nuclear war no one will launch a single nuclear missile, during the early 1983, Soviet early warning computers malfunctioned and reported single Minuteman ICBM on the way to Moscow, the soviet commanding officer is intelligent enough to predict it's a false Alarm, since both soviet and Americans know, the first strike could comes simultaneous missiles launches with saturation attack to disable all Soviet land based nuke launching systems and early warning networks.

    Mutual Assured Destruction is the term used in Nuclear war, like rival forces of Russia against US  and NATO allies, and China against south pacific nations and India, these are the only countries in the world who poses clear second strike capability, even India too don't have such capability, the ongoing Arihant Project completed by only 2018 or so, the first Indian Nuclear strategic submarine with live nukes is the INS Aridman S2, the first SSBN INS Arihant is the test vehicle to validate the SSBN capability, while the second one is twice as the size of Arihant. S 2 is capable to carry 24 K-15 missiles, or some 8 K-4 missiles, that can capable to disable entire Pakistani strategic positions.

    The North Korean's recently tests a SLBM launch, with modified diesel submarine and modified lad based missile, the Submarine could carry less than four or two Missiles only, that can't pose concrete second strike capability, the same what Pakistan too trying with the Chinese diesel electric submarine, Pakistan has some Agosta class submarines, who can't carry Nuclear missiles or Pakistani cruise missiles, the Agosta can launch Exocet anti shipping missile through it's torpedo tubes, so there is no way of using the proven Agosta submarines for Pakistani SLBM Program. So if Pakistan tries a second strike they could modify Chinese diesel electric Submarine.

   Indian Army has the full offensive capability and can capable to control entire Pakistani territory with in first 72 hours at the mean time Indian Navy can control the entire Pakistani waters within first 24 hours. so Pakistan has no option to counter Indian Army, that's why they sounding themselves has the Second strike Capability,   

Pakistani Report, India has enough fissile material for 2000 Nuke Bomb

Pakistani Report, India has enough fissile material for 2000 Nuke Bomb

    It's hard to believe that Pakistan too have common sense, since their Political leaders to Military leaders vows to attack India and shout Pakistan will win the war if future conflict erupt with India, so it's hard to digest that Pakistani military officials too lost their common sense and IQ, even recently they said Pakistan can annihilate India with the nuclear weapons, such words can comes from only an idiots or poor educated fellow's. however the Pakistani National command authority members speak about the Indian Capabilities in a recent meeting with the Pakistani government and military officials.

   The meeting was mainly focused the Pakistani Strategic programs and capabilities, while they analyzes with latest inputs from American think tanks report and many other resources,and they assumed that India has enough fissile materials to produce more than 2000 nuclear warheads, not just a low yield sub kilo ton warheads, it's mega ton ranges, even that assessment is not updated, the report suggests the details are as of 2013, and now the new Indian Government may speed up the process to build more nuke warheads, which can pose serious threats to Pakistan in case of nuclear war,

    The meeting also brings a clear input of growing conventional capabilities of Indian Army, which can able to attack and pose serious damages to Pakistani assets in case of war, the major reason behind why Pakistan change it's maximum deterrence policy into full spectrum nuclear deterrence, how ever they never discussed anything about the Pakistani officials war drums, or the Media is not allowed to publish about it, provoking India should cost more to Pakistan is the correct answer they get in the meeting if they discussed about it,

   Surprisingly the meeting was headed by the Pakistani Prime minister and his cabinet ministers along with the Pakistani national security adviser and  tri-services chiefs, they also briefed about the cross border shelling and provocation, how ever no information about the discussion was not published in the media.    

   The meeting also disclosed that currently no information available about the Indian Nuclear stockpiles and Missile delivery systems, as earlier from 2000's it's stayed on the same 90 to 110 numbers, and Pakistan says the assumptions maybe wrong, they have more nuclear warheads than estimated,

    Pakistan also raised concern of Indian second strike capability, involving nuclear powered strategic missile submarine, that India planned more than three such platforms, and It's a shock to Pakistani's about Arihant's performance and secrecy, so far it's not involved in any mishaps. those submarines can attack any Pakistan cities with the nuclear warheads.

   Interestingly they analyses the Indian Nirbhay missile too, a missile similar to American long range Tomahawk cruise missile system. they concerned about Indian plans of  Air launched and submarine launched version of Nirbhay cruise missiles, that can carry conventional warheads upto the range of some 1000+ kilometers.

   The meeting suggested that Pakistan should maintain full spectrum nuclear deterrence level to confront India, and that's what Pakistan doing since ages. we have Nuclear we have nuclear.    

The Sabotage of India's 'Cold Dreams, the Cryogenic death and revival'

The Sabotage of India's 'Cold Dreams, the Cryogenic death and revival'

    History was written in golden words on 27th August 2015, by Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO). ISRO had flown the Indian flag high and had made the nation proud by fortifying its position in the 'Cryo Club'. ISRO successfully completed the launch campaign of GSLV – D6 carrying India’s latest communication satellite GSAT – VI to a Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO). Equipped with the indigenous Cryogenic Upper Stage (CUS), the GSLV – D6 had a textbook lift off from the Second launch pad at SHAR. After a undergoing the preparatory 29 hour countdown, the 416 tonne, 49 m tall GSLV-D6 carrying the 2117 kg GSAT-6, blasted off towards the sky as the clock struck 16:52 Hrs.

    At about T -5 seconds before the scheduled lift-off, the four external strap-on's powered by a liquid propellant were ignited signalling the launch of GSLV-D6. Assisted by the solid propellant fueled first stage core motor, GSLV blasted off carrying the dreams of ISRO high-up to the skies. With the HSS separating the control room at SHAR, glued its sight to the giant trajectory tracer. With the Second stage successfully burning out and separating, the wait for the CUS ignition had began. The indigneously developed CUS ignited, lifted the payload soaring up and separated following a flawless flight . Following this, GSAT-6 separated from CUS about 17 minutes after launch. The CUS or Cryogenic Upper Stage was a technology that took ISRO years to develop. The way CUS was constituted is no short of any thriller story!!! So what exactly followed in India mastering this technology?

GSLV - D6

   The development of Cryogenic system is an extremely complicated process and often requires the best technologies available in the field to be implemented to obtain the most efficient result. ISRO worked years to master the technology which was denied repeatedly by the world powers just for the fear of a reverse engineered ballistic missile technology landing right in the doors of ever capable Indians. The GSLV program was constituted in the 1980’s by the Indian government to master the technology for launching Geosynchronous satellites to GTO. With the PSLV program being a great success, ISRO choose to retain junk of major components used on the PSLV and also decided to field the liquid fuelled Vikas engine. The barrier in attaining GTO was always the need to master Cryogenic technology.

     The only nations that had mastered the complex cryogenic technology were USSR and USA. India approached both the nations for the complex technology to be in house and to be incorporated in its further mission. USA responding positively to the request had put in charge General Dynamics Corporation for gifting India it’s last piece in the space race. But the cost was a concern and America denied providing ToT, at certain key junctures, fearing a flank ISRO soon turned down the American offer. The next in the race was India’s trusted ally, Russia, which promised India the KVD-1, built by the Isayev Design Bureau. The KVD-1 had unsurpassed thrust and launch capabilities, the very same engine was developed as a part of Russia’s race to land men on moon. Russia offered two fully built KVD-1 and also promised a complete TOT, all a mere cost of US $200 million deal.

     On 18th January 1991, ISRO and Russian Space agency Glavkosmos signed an elaborate agreement for the ToT of cryogenic engines. The ToT would India would join the league mastered only by Russia and USA and theoretically, India would also have a system that could be mutated to an effective IRBM system with sustained efforts. But the mutation was not an easy process, and the use of hydrogen as a propellant in the upper stages meant that the system could be launched at moments, as against ICBM system requirements. America actively pursued every possible way to curb this development and landed upon the ‘violation of MTCR’ agreements by Russia. With the collapse of USSR, and facing an economical downfall Russia itself was under the umbrella of USA.

Vikas Engine 

   With Russia and India not yielding to the international pressure, USA imposed sanctions on ISRO and Russian space agencies and chocked every development project implanted by ISRO with foreign collaborations. Under the pressure of Clinton, Russia finally backed down on the deal agreed to supply India seven fully built engines for further missions. With Russia denying the technology, the race an indigenously developed Cryogenic system was kicked off by ISRO. Very few breakthroughs were made in the years to come, India was forced to either work in incognito or acknowledge the project by seeking the help of international players. Rumours of Russia covertly transferring the technology to India are a common part of the developmental story.

   The said deal is captured by Brian Harvey in his book ‘Russia in Space: The Failed Frontier’. With Russia agreeing to ratify the MCTR clauses, a small window for the transfer of technology opened up but that mandated the deal could never be acknowledged by both the nations. Harvey quotes ‘ISRO contacted Air India and requested to transport the components and blue prints without acknowledging the parcels’. Air India soon turned down the request raising concerns about the large CIA network that would be tipped at the slightest of the onset on Indian bound flights. The next in the list was Russian ‘Ural Airlines’, with Russia backing the deal Ural was soon to agree for the deal.

    The risk was huge but the relationship between India and Russia was eternal, India was an ally Russia could never manage losing and it went the other way around. With America pushing diplomatically to seal all the loops, the transfer were shrouded in secrecy active spy ring of CIA was scouring Russia to catch hold of USSR’s technology. Russia then transferred the relevant documents, equipments and machinery on board covert Ural flights which were accounted as transferring Indian aircraft technology to be tested in Russian wing tunnel facilities.

Mahendragiri; ISRO

   Every single flight had to be meticulously planned, every component had to be accounted for and a perfect cover drawn, the slightest change and America would be catching up with the story. The transfers had to happen in the dead of the night, the biggest problem was when the components were being loaded in Russia. The aircraft was officially carrying aircraft components from India, so the aircraft had to be sent to India with minimal load, every cargo going on was personally being handled by 'Nambi Narayanan' who had made several trips to Russia. The risk of CIA or other intelligence agencies tracking the package was always a live threat, the way the components reached 'VSSC, Thriuvananthapuram' has been never revealed to the public. The risk was immense but Russia had covertly passed on the blueprints and basic technology to India for starting off with its indigenous cryogenic dream.

 

   By 1992, the work on the cryogenic systems had started in VSSC, Thriuvananthapuram under secrecy but the constant visit of top space brains to the facility had set-off alarms in Washington D.C. CIA by then had confirmed the existence of a project being actively pursued by ISRO to develop a powerful launch system. CIA had thus got the wind of the project and soon tapped its sources in Russia, within months the free flow of technology to ISRO was confirmed and as an icing, CIA received disturbing news of India having achieved major breakthroughs in the development project.

    It is strongly believed by the late 1994, ISRO had significantly mastered the technology and were in the process of implementing the complex tech barrier to attain the masterpiece. But by then a jolt had struck the project right at its heart, a major scandal involving key personnel of VSSC was aired in national news channels across India. Two eminent scientists 'Nambi Narayanan', Project Director (PD) of Cryogenic project and 'D. Sasikumaran', In-charge of Propulsion were charged of leaking crucial information to foreign intelligence agency agents. Serious charges of Espionage was levelled against the top brains of ISRO, they were accused of transferring key developmental data two Maldivian intelligence officers after accepting millions for the exchange. The charges were grave and on 30th October 1994, 'Narayanan' was arrested on charged of Espionage and falling for a well set honey trap.

Narayanan, Frm. Deputy Director Cryogenic System

 

   A detailed investigation by CBI, Intelligence Bureau (IB) found the charges to have been purely fabricated at the behest of an unseen force. The whole case was dismissed by the Supreme Court, the apex judiciary body in India. A compensation of around Rs 1.5 crore was awarded to each individual and every charge leveled was subsequently dropped. They never returned to the developmental wing of ISRO, they were reinstated in 1998 and were transferred out of VSSC to a desk job in HQ, Bengaluru. Narayanan was the one who introduced the concept of liquid propulsion in India, a revolutionary technology which changed the course of space capabilities possessed by ISRO. India’s celebrated ‘Chandrayan’ and the ‘Magalayaan’ missions were centric around the Vikas liquid propelled engines, a pet project of 'Narayanan'. D.Sasikumaran was the men in charge of fabricating and manufacturing cryogenic systems but his designation today is in SAC, Ahmadabad.

    The real target was always compromising India’s quest for Cryogenic technology, India was extremely close to realizing this dream, work was headed in the right way and India was not really far from realizing the dream. ISRO had succeed in setting up test facilities in Mahendragiri, TN where repeated tests had proved the project was headed down the right way. The GSLV was designed to be a three staged rocket, a solid propellant motor was to fire the rocket in the primary flight just after the external strap-on’s separated. Led by India’s most celebrated scientist ‘APJ Abdul Kalam’, India had successfully developed the solid motors, the technology was being actively used in SLV and missile systems.

SasiKumaran; Fmr. In-Charge Cryogenic Systems

    The next up was the liquid propulsion systems, which was being mastered under the guidance of 'Narayanan'. The upper stage was to be powered by cryogenic system, which India had imported from Russia at a whopping cost of US $220 million. India was a rapidly developing country, placing satellites in the GTO was a sheer necessity to India. Further import from Russia was economical unviable and seeking the help of USA was humiliating, may this was the force that kept us driving. Cryogenic systems were being developed by VSSC under 'SasiKumaran', India after all had the blueprints from Russia. World had several times realized the capability of India, given a clean slate India was capable of putting up the best image. The case was complicated here, India had the know-how, and the answer was ready made only implication was to be made.

   Given all the factors, India was bound to master the technology in less than a decade. The threat of India developing an IRBM was never a worry, global powers had realized DRDO was way ahead in the GMP and was bound to bring the world under its reach. But the real concern for global powers was the commercial interest, India was known to develop technology at the lowest possible production cost. The project rate itself would be extremely minimal, India was capable of offering extremely cost effective GTO missions to the world. A few nations had conquered this complex technology, the need was high, and every country needed a satellite for secure communications and for their forces. Losing the market to a third world country was a concern for some of the leading countries. The only way out was to block from India developing a cryogenic engine.

   Countries had tried diplomatically to wind up the project, it had worked but the knife had turned, the diplomatic pressure had meant India had its free hand in tweaking the technology to its need. MCTR had worked initially but now the program was shrouded in secrecy even worrying it was being developed indigenously, there was no way India could be publically driven away from achieving a mile-stone. The only option was a surgical strike right at the heart of the program, India loved peace and the world had reciprocated the damage peacefully, any new drama’s a befitting reply was guaranteed. Hence the blow was struck silently as covertly as the project had started. Two of its top brain framed in a case that never had the base, a case that saw some of the ugliest faces of Indian politics coming out from the hiding shadows.

The Cryogenic Engine

    The external force had succeeded in getting the top brains both directly in-charge of the cryogenic project being forced to abstain from work. Espionage was a serious allegation and demanded through grilling, at the end truth had prevailed. 'Narayanan' and ‘SasiKumaran’ were held back from their office for 4 years, before being reinstated. The ‘Cryogenic project’ had suffered, the damage was done, and the Project Director (PD) was in a jail and the In-Charge of propulsion and Cryogenic systems accompanying his PD in the cell. The case was nothing short of counter-intelligence operation, the eminent souls ‘Narayanan’ and ‘SasiKumaran’ were merely the collateral in a massive operation against Indian interests. India’s Cryogenic dream was put on a back burner, for once the motivational level of ISRO was questioned but there are no barriers for reasoning and developing minds. And there’s ample of it in the ever capable ISRO, the Cryogenic dream is a reality dream today. We’re a select few in the world to posses this complex technology, be proud we developed it indigenously but let there be remorse it was at the cost of the career of two of India’s brightest minds.

    The question that will haunt us for years to come is the role of the foreign agencies. Was there no foreign agency involved in it, but everything a mere coincidence? Coincidence doesn’t play out in a organization, surely not in the case of two meticulously working scientist. So who was it really at the end who had partially succeed in sabotaging, India’s dream project? Was it the Russians? Surely not they worked with us, they transferred the technology right under the Scanner. How about considering Pakistan, India’s long time foe? Well the possibility is real, but could Pakistan really get to know something Indian agencies had shrouded in secrecy, the world’s best agency was yet to get a taste, ISI making a mark is really bleak. The other three in the list are a bit interesting, how about USA, France and China?

Cryogenic Upper Stage being integrated with GSLV - D6; ISRO

   Well it sounds a bit like a power league story, but the one’s to really make anything out of the deal were only these nations. France was a nation that was still mastering the developed technology, the path an ahead for tasting success was pretty far. France is a nation that has stood by India’s side even during its toughest time, remember France is one of the only nations not to impose sanctions on India shortly after nuclear tests. China is a possible conspirator, tensions were high but China itself was still developing the technology and was on the path to prove the Asian power to the world. The rise of India would surely have been a concern for China, but the resources at its disposal were extremely minimal, was it really capable of pulling off such an orchestrated operation. The first on the list would be USA, America had successfully developed the cryogenic system and India relied heavily on their launch system, would you let your costumer develop on your technology and on the top take away your clientele? Sounds a bit realistic, justified and worrying, doesn’t it. Was it after all the world’s best spy agency CIA under the behest of Clinton, which had blocked the ToT that had momentarily sabotaged India’s cold dreams? The question will never be answered, its our imaginations our conclusions but for victims like 'Narayanan' and 'SasiKumaran', the question haunts, their future stares at uncertainty. But the lose is for ‘India’, isn’t it ?????

Article - Karthik Kakoor

Army Chief Sounds Troops operational Preparedness

Army Chief Sounds Troops operational Preparedness

   The Army Chief of Staff Gen Dalbir Singh says that Indian Army must be ready for a Short war, which will happens anytime, same like Kargil, Pakistan may plans to infiltrate Indian Positions along north and west Borders, Army Chief said this during a celebration event of 1965 war Anniversary, currently being celebrated all over India.

   Chief addressed about the recent developments along the Line of Control, more number of Terrorists infiltrations and ceasefire violations with false claiming actually denotes a Hybrid warfare, something like unofficially declared war, those violations are something more compared to previous times, So it's need to be Army should be ready for a short war, If something like Kargil happens in coming days.

    The Pakistani's are more aggressive these days, ceasefire violations by using heavy weapons, and assisting Terrorists to infiltrate into India, at the mean time the Government sounds about the  nuclear weapons, and their officials alarming heavy retaliations in case of any strike, after the cross border raid in Myanmar, Pakistan is so worried about the same can be happens inside Pakistan too, as many Military watchers said India has the capability take control of the Pakistani air space and perform such air raid or special operation inside Pakistan, that's also put heavy pressure on Pakistani faces.

   So far the Borders are under control by the Border Security forces, who foils terror infiltrations and retaliating the ceasefire violations, the Army called in only if any terrorists activity reported, and they too patrol nearby Borders and closed zones, as recent violations, Army beefed up more patrols near borders, however they never involved in the ceasefire retaliations,

    The Army Chief also says the Army is in high alert as of now, and can be mobilized to borders with in short time, and the entire North and western Military head quarters can mobilize the entire Troops near to border within three to four days, means the forces can be deployed near borders with full swing, Army alone will not comes, they comes with bigger fire power from small mortars to heavy artillery and Rockets, the western command alone has some five plus armored Brigades, equipped with  T 72 Tanks, Pinaka Multi Barrel Rockets etc, Army Mobility or deployments means they can hold the deployed positions for the coming sixty or more days, while many of them say this is the so Called Indian Army's Cold Start Doctrine,

    Cold Start doctrine is a never acknowledged doctrine used by the Indian Army, which means deploying the Mass number of Indian Army Soldiers and support systems near to border within 72 Hours, and they can start a major offensive operation against the Pakistani Forces once they get go orders, however Chief does not disclose about army deployment near border so far, or any other media's or Sources reported that, however It's clear Army is in High preparedness mode, and can be mobilized in very short time.

   Currently most of the Kashmiri area's are under the watch of Rashtriya Rifle Forces, they were something like special forces, they were called in for any kind of  terrorists attacks or infiltration attempts  in Kashmir, and the regular Indian Army Troops conducts patrols as part of their designated area's. 

India likely to enter Nuclear arms Race

India likely to enter Nuclear arms Race

    It's believed that India likely to reenter the Nuclear arms race with the neighbors, as the American Think Tanks  suggested about Pakistani nuclear deterrence become full spectrum and that's the major threat to India, India now considering to revamp old techniques to produce more Nuclear warheads, as of now India produce warheads from only one Plutonium reactor, It's believed that India may speed up the process to get more number of Nuclear warheads,

    The International community estimates India has around hundres Nuclear warheads, his neighbors Pakistan has hundred and twenty and China has tow hundred plus Nuclear warheads and put some hundred plus warheads in combat ready mode, It's clear because of No first use Policy neither India or China would not exchange Nuclear war, however the real threat is the Pakistani Nuclear weapons and the rise of Terrorism in Pakistan, which makes the Pakistani nuclear warheads unsafe, and the terrorists can easily put their hands on Pakistani Nuclear, also some rough general from Pakistani Army can wage a Nuclear war against Bharath, and even many of the Pakistani military officials threatening India with their Nuclear warheads.

   The same American Think Tanks said the Pakistani warheads are small, because of low yield, this might be problem, since small size warheads can be easily transported, like a Truck or big van enough to transport a 50 kT warhead, although Pakistani missiles are less capable compared to others means less range and less payload, that's the major reason behind why Pakistan speeding it's nuke productions, the same that they can believe many tactical nukes may stop Indian Front line Offensive Force.

    India has two major Nuclear Power near it's doorstep, both of them claiming lands and intruding Indian territory, makes a tough scenario likely escalate at any moments, So far India mainly invested in credible Nuclear deterrence by developing most sophisticated missiles and delivery systems, with the dedicated Nuclear command.

    India yet to join the Nuclear triad group, as the tests firing of Submarine based Ballistic missile yet to happen, and the Submarine based live nukes will be deployed only after 2018 or 2020, once the S 2 and S 3 SSBN's cleared for deterrence patrol,

    India has credible Nuclear deterrence by using the Agni based Ballistic missiles, India Deployed 1000 km to 4000 km Range Ballistic missiles Agni 1,2,3,4. and It's believed short range ballistic missiles like Pritivi is withdrawn from SFC and it was further developed into quasi ballistic and anti ballistic missile program, and some of the Pritivi used for Indian Army can be used for sub munitions delivery, however it's hard to see launching Pritivi in war, because earlier it was used for Nuclear deterrence, The actual numbers of Agni Missiles is not available for Public, however  four Series of Agni numbers could reach more than 100 missiles, for the Agni Missiles India need some 100 warheads. and It's clear the numbers likely increase in coming years. means the need of more Nuclear warheads is must.

     India yet to induct the Agni 5 missile, and It's still on test phase, however some say the Agni 5 maybe converted into  Anti satellite missile, a missile designed to attack enemy satellites in the space, most of the Nuclear powers already tested such ASAT Capability, India also need such capability to strike enemy satellites in case of war, so if Agni 5 converted into ASAT missile, SFC goes for Agni 6 for long range nuclear attack missions, so far all Indian missiles comes with only one warheads, however all P 5 Nations ICBM's comes with Multiple warheads, mostly each ICBM comes with ten 200 to 500 Kilo Tons of Nuclear warheads, as already reported some media's earlier DRDO already engaged in a Program to develop MIRV based warheads, and It's expected the MIRV based Ballistic missile known as Agni 6, which is likely to be test fired next two years, as first DRDO Plans for three MIRV warheads and later only India will poses 10 MIRVed Warheads in Nuclear missiles, so after inducting MIRV warheads the Need of Nuclear warheads will triple it's size, so there is no doubt that India might go for more Nuclear warheads in future.

   The Air based deterrence is pretty small, SFC using the Jaguar fleet for Nuclear bombing role, one or two Jaguar squadron filled up with some 10 to 20 nuclear warheads whose yield might be lesser than some 20 kilo tons, fighter based Nuclear delivery is very low yield since it is used counter the enemy advancements, and the SFC plans to induct 40 Sukhoi fighters for Nuclear delivery, even the Sukhoi's also armed with nuclear tipped free fall bombs, however India may add some 40 Brahmos A missiles for Nuclear delivery, and which will be kept under secret or just a dream, because violating MCTR will brings heavy sanctions, India respects the IP rights .

    The Major upcoming Indian Nuclear deterrence is the Submarine based missiles, however the INS Arihant is just an test vehicle, will perform test parameters in underwater, it's Nuclear propulsion and it's missile launching capability, However the future Arihanth class known as Aridhman series only host live nukes, where one is currently constructed in Vizag and two more in Vadodara, almost all of them put on the sea before 2020. each submarine can host 4 long range MIRVed missiles, means 12 live nukes with some 100+ nukes. so the reason of doubling the Nuclear warheads is happen with or without racing with pakistan and Chinese, and one must understand China also increasing it's nukes and deploying newer platforms.

Why should we remember the 1965 India-Pakistan war?

Why should we remember the 1965 India-Pakistan war?

   Fifty years have passed, since the Indian Army, taken by surprise by Pakistani infiltrators, fought back to finally get the better of eventual military exchanges. The war, fought across both the Line of Control and the international border, saw India capture larger tracts of Pakistani territory and attain a military advantage.

   An analysis of the 1965 Indo-Pak war from a strategic perspective remains relevant for a number of reasons. This is facilitated by a reasonably long period of fifty years, which provide an opportunity to objectively assess its significance, with the proverbial benefit of hindsight.

    It was a mere three years prior to the war in 1965 that India had been defeated by the Chinese in 1962. This was not merely a military defeat, but also a serious blow to the pride of the country and its armed forces. Despite this setback, the soldiers and their leaders did not display any adverse sign of the debacle against Pakistan. The Indian soldier excelled despite fearful odds.

     The war threw up a number of outstanding tactical victories, as well as individual stories of bravery. This is best illustrated by the valour displayed in bloody battles like Haji Pir, Dograi and Asal Uttar. At Haji Pir, the armed forces launched one of the finest attacks, deep into Pakistani territory to capture the pass. Major Ranjt Singh Dayal, who led this force, became a household name. The battle of Dograi, is unique in the annals of Indian military history, wherein 3 JAT, the battalion that was involved, captured the same objective twice, despite erroneously being asked to fall back after the first victory. Asal Uttar is often referred to as "Patton Nagar". It witnessed the destruction of nearly 100 Pakistani tanks on the battlefield. As a result of a number of similar victories, by the end of the war, the armed forces had not only buried the defeat against China, they had also chartered the course for building upon their hard fought victories. This finally became evident during the 1971 Indo-Pak war.

    It is a commonly held belief that India has always held a clear edge in the conventional military sphere against Pakistan. This was certainly the case immediately after independence, however, after the mid fifties, Pakistan embarked on a concerted path to modernise its forces, in the garb of aligning against communism. This saw it receive high end military hardware from the US. In reality, its preparations were clearly aimed at India, as the events of 1965 proved. After the 1962 war, when the US provided India with military hardware, Pakistan, established a special relationship with China, the very country, US had armed it against. India was also disadvantaged during the process of raising new formations after the 1962 war, as most of these were not in a state of preparedness to fight a war. The sudden increase in size had also diluted its professional edge. Pakistan realised these limitations and decided to strike at a time that it considered most advantageous. Therefore, purely from the perspective of military hardware and readiness, Pakistan had a clear edge in 1965. The Indian response and achievements must be seen from this perspective and were therefore all the more commendable.

    Despite some of the notable successes in the face of odds, the war brought home certain important military realities that remain relevant fifty years later as well. Here are five factors, which emerge as the lessons that the armed forces must build upon.

   First, each service fought its individual battles, with limited cohesion in the planning or execution of the war effort. While there has been better coordination achieved over the years, a lot needs to be done to ensure that unity of effort is achieved through the seamless integration of the armed forces.

   Second, the war exposed limitations in the intelligence capability of the country and the armed forces. This has been a recurrent weakness repeatedly exposed thereafter as well. There is a case for investing far more than is presently the case to enhance the capacity of military intelligence as well as internal and external national intelligence agencies.

   Third, the war brought home the reality that military capability cannot be created in a short span of time. The efforts that began after the 1962 war, were inadequate to create the kind of military edge needed to retain conventional military superiority against Pakistan. This is equally relevant in the present context.

   Fourth, the refusal of military and civilian authorities to share the reality of wars and war fighting with the country has led to misinformation and misgivings which are great for sustaining myths, but not objective analysis. The recent initiative to document wars is a step in the right direction, though it should ideally be accompanied by declassification of records to enable scholars to enlarge the debate.

   Fifth, war termination is a reflection of a country's long term strategic assessment of its desired objectives. The aftermath of the 1965 war clearly exposed weaknesses in this regard. It also reinforced the country's adhoc strategic culture. This remains a weakness, with inadequate investment in developing strategic insight amongst leaders, both military and civilian alike.

    As the country celebrates the achievements of the 1965 Indo-Pak war, a simultaneous attempt must be made to ensure that weaknesses if any must be addressed so that the country and its armed forces are prepared to successfully achieve national objectives.

Written By Col Vivek Chada Published in Daily O