Understanding the nuclear Deterrence

Understanding the nuclear Deterrence

Nuclear weapons are known as the last sword to save the country before falling into enemy's hand, Nuclear weapons are considered as weapons of mass destruction, since they destroy large volume of area, more than that it makes the land inaccessible for humans for more than centuries, due to the radioactive materials continuously emit radio waves which can harm humans.

Nuclear weapons are considered as suicide weapon. also a self defense weapon too, if the enemy nation too posses the nuclear weapon, it could be used for self defense. Both can use the nuclear weapons  in case of anyone launched and vice versa. That's the reason why many nations instructed themselves by not using the nuclear weapons first. No first usage policy is commonly refereed term.

Meanwhile if the enemy nation do not have nuclear weapon, one can easily threaten the enemy with load of dossiers, just like how North Korean dictator Kim Jong repeatedly threatens the non nuclear pacific nations. Unlike in Indo-China-Pakistani theater all posses nuclear weapons. except Pakistan,  India and China had nuclear weapons in safe hand and No first usage policy.

When comes to Pakistan, the rough terrorist regime, who threatens India with tactical nuclear weapons to counter the Indian cold start military movement doctrine. The doctrine simply understand as "March towards Islam-a-bad" . Pakistan reports they can stop the Indian forces using the tactical nuclear weapons if they crossed the border.

Here Pakistan has a less powerful nuclear deterrence compared to India. If Pakistan conduct a nuclear strike against India, with the barrage of some 40 to 60 missiles with nuclear warheads. India may face huge casualty and India can lost many cities.

One has to be understand, those known missile defense systems will not work effectively due to the barrage of multiple launches. Pakistan can use their low yield short range nuclear missiles over India. Pakistan can achieve 20% of successful launches. Since 80% of the missiles can be either intercepted by AD system or launch failure, or missile malfunctions.

In retaliation, India can launch another barrage of some 100 missiles over Pakistan each targets major Pakistani cities with the hit probability of some 80%. with the huge Strike from India, Pakistan can be pushed back to ancient age and can be inaccessible for another some 200 or more years.

The reason why India boosting it's conventional capabilities to fight against Pakistan, In the limited conventional war India can defeat Pakistan. even with low friendly causalities. However Pakistan can use their lands and peoples can live there without any issues even losing to India in a conventional war. the same not available if they planned for a WMD usage.

It's clear, Pakistan can continuously black mail India, while not performing a one, Since all those Pakistani nuclear missiles are always tracked by different nations Intelligence wing as well as Indian intelligence too. They were placed within the strike range of Indian fighter aircraft's. Suppose any conditions Pakistan tries to launch a nuke missile, India can conduct a preemptive air strike targeting those launch pads.

The same can be switched towards Chinese point of view, China has large conventional fire power as well as Nuclear fire power compared to India, India will not pose any serious nuke threats to China, since India knows then the outcome from China may larger than assume in an nuclear war. with the massive number of arsenal, China can take out more than 50 top cities in India, where India can take out some 20 to 25 Top Chinese cities with nuke strikes.

Results can favor to China only, where they can capable to withstand from Indian nuke attack but not us. Moreover China has large significant military fire power, while India too have, both maintain no first usage policy too. So the Indo China war could be in the conventional field only.

 Those Arihant series also as part of nuclear deterrence, If massive first wave of Chinese nuke strike disabled all ground launching and air launching capability. Those Arihants can retaliate the Chinese launch, This is a example of Suicide weapon.  On the other side, If India takes out Pakistani nuclear launching capability in first wave of attack, Pakistan has no option to retaliate. That Pakistan must understand before blackmailing India with nuke threats.

Stage set for K 4 SLBM Test

Stage set for K 4 SLBM Test

    India is all set to test fire its longest range undersea missile, code named K-4, which is capable of delivering nuclear warhead at 3,500 km away. The test is planned to be conducted from a submerged platform in the Bay of Bengal between March 7 and 8. Defence sources on Thursday said preparation was on in full swing for the scheduled test.

While the tracking systems have already been shifted from the Integrated Test Range (ITR) and two Naval ships taken to the area of mission, another one is likely to be moved to the point of impact to record the terminal events and splashdown.

This test would be conducted from a submerged pontoon, replica of a submarine, positioned nearly 30 feet deep in the sea. The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), which has developed the missile, had kept the project secret till its first test in March, 2014.

While the missile’s first test was for a range of 3,000 km, this time the scientists are reportedly trying for its full operational range of 3,500 km. The missile, world’s best in this class, will have to undergo two more developmental trials before being fired from the indigenously developed submarine INS Arihant next year.

A defence scientist said this manoeuvrable missile having an innovative system of interlacing in three dimensions can also cruise at hypersonic speed. This exceptional feature of the weapon system makes it difficult to be tracked easily and destroyed by any anti-ballistic missile defence systems. The missile has a high accuracy of near-zero circular error probable.

The intermediate range submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM) is about 12 metres tall with a diameter of 1.3 metres. It weighs around 17 tonnes and can carry a warhead weighing upto 2,000 kg. The missile is powered by solid rocket propellant.

India has so far planned three missiles in the K-series. While the 700-km range K-15, renamed as B-05 (launched 10 times) and 3,500-km range K-4 have been developed, the K-5 will have a striking capability of over 5,000 km. All the K-series missiles are faster, lighter and stealthier.

-New Indian Express

The Pakistani Dream of Second Strike Capablity

The Pakistani Dream of Second Strike Capability

      Recently Pakistani media dawn published that Pakistan already possessed second strike Capability, without mentioning the launching platform, ex Pakistani defense secretary Lt.Gen Khalid informed this in a seminar conducted by strategic vision institute, before talking about such capability one must understand what is second strike capability, If a country attacked by preemptive nuclear strike in a first wave of attack, the country's all strategic based weapons and it's support systems will be compromised, they have no options left to counter the first strike, So they need a overseas territory or an sea based moving platforms that can launch Nuclear missiles,

     The known best option is the Submarine based second strike capability, even with the Submarine based Nuclear missiles, you need guidance from satellites too, the Submarine should communicate with satellites for launching the missile, country owned Navigational Satellite systems also must needed for Second strike capability, the Submarine based second strike option is very expensive, once the launch code initiated by the Country's Strategic forces command, the Submarine will launch the missiles within the second, means almost all SSBN are armed with ready to fire missile, unlike land based other assets.

      For First Strike, one must use the Land based Silo or TEL launchers to launch the Nuclear missile, with full superiority of support access, means the country gets Navigational support and guidance for better accuracy, the missile also targets the country's strategic positions only, also no one willing to launch a single nuclear missile, the first strike comes with ripple launch of missiles targeting major economic and Military positions, makes sure that they will not able to launch a counter strike, so the suffered country need an another option to counter the first strike, that's where it's comes the Second Strike Option.

     The Second strike would need as much as fire power to pose a serious nuclear attack, in a Nuclear war no one will launch a single nuclear missile, during the early 1983, Soviet early warning computers malfunctioned and reported single Minuteman ICBM on the way to Moscow, the soviet commanding officer is intelligent enough to predict it's a false Alarm, since both soviet and Americans know, the first strike could comes simultaneous missiles launches with saturation attack to disable all Soviet land based nuke launching systems and early warning networks.

    Mutual Assured Destruction is the term used in Nuclear war, like rival forces of Russia against US  and NATO allies, and China against south pacific nations and India, these are the only countries in the world who poses clear second strike capability, even India too don't have such capability, the ongoing Arihant Project completed by only 2018 or so, the first Indian Nuclear strategic submarine with live nukes is the INS Aridman S2, the first SSBN INS Arihant is the test vehicle to validate the SSBN capability, while the second one is twice as the size of Arihant. S 2 is capable to carry 24 K-15 missiles, or some 8 K-4 missiles, that can capable to disable entire Pakistani strategic positions.

    The North Korean's recently tests a SLBM launch, with modified diesel submarine and modified lad based missile, the Submarine could carry less than four or two Missiles only, that can't pose concrete second strike capability, the same what Pakistan too trying with the Chinese diesel electric submarine, Pakistan has some Agosta class submarines, who can't carry Nuclear missiles or Pakistani cruise missiles, the Agosta can launch Exocet anti shipping missile through it's torpedo tubes, so there is no way of using the proven Agosta submarines for Pakistani SLBM Program. So if Pakistan tries a second strike they could modify Chinese diesel electric Submarine.

   Indian Army has the full offensive capability and can capable to control entire Pakistani territory with in first 72 hours at the mean time Indian Navy can control the entire Pakistani waters within first 24 hours. so Pakistan has no option to counter Indian Army, that's why they sounding themselves has the Second strike Capability,   

The secret 'K' missile family

 The secret 'K' missile family

  Named after Kalam, a secret family of advanced weapons is taking shape but the Government is yet to decide on the induction of their land-based variants.

   In a dramatic breakthrough in its nuclear offensive capability, India has successfully tested a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) with an eventual range of 3,500 km. Tested secretly off Visakhapatnam in January this year, the 10-m long and 1.3-m wide missile emerged from a pontoon submerged 50 m underwater and breached the surface. Painted black and white so that it can be distinguished in water, it has passed a critical parameter.

    Named after India's missile man, former President APJ Abdul Kalam, the nuclear-tipped K-4 is quite significant in a batch of new-generation counter-strike strategic missiles. The top secret indigenous "K" missiles are faster, lighter and stealthier. They also make India only the sixth country to develop undersea strategic missiles.

    A second firing, to be conducted off Visakhapatnam within two months, will revalidate a critical parameter-the ability of a 20-tonne projectile to withstand 50 kg of water pressure and eject from a submerged launcher before engaging its rocket booster. What makes an SLBM relevant in the Indian context is that it is part of the third leg of the nuclear deterrent (air and ground-launched weapons being the other two) and the ideal invulnerable second strike weapon stated in the nuclear doctrine. Defence officials say a long range SLBM like the K-4 will enable an Indian nuclear submarine lurking in the Bay of Bengal to target China and Pakistan simultaneously. Launched last year, India's first indigenous nuclear-powered submarine Arihant has been designed to carry four K-4s or 12 of the 750-km range K-15s.

    DRDO officials say that the K-4 will be ready for induction before the end of the decade. This is because most technologies, including the sophisticated guidance packages, were already perfected while developing the shorter range K-15 SLBM. Defence officials, however, are cautious because despite a history of missile expertise, Russia has witnessed multiple failures of its new Bulava SLBM. In the works is an as yet unnamed longer-legged variant of the K-4 with a 5,000-km range. The 12-m long missile is meant to arm future nuclear submarines.

     But while the DRDO parades its Agni and Prithvi missiles on Republic Day, it will not even acknowledge the existence of any of these "black projectsâ€? that have been cloaked under the Advanced Technology Vessel Project (ATV) that builds the Arihant class of nuclear submarines.

   By 2008, the missile was successfully test fired seven times, and tested to its full range up to four times. The tests of 26 February 2008, were conducted from a submerged pontoon 50 metres (160 ft) beneath the surface off the coast of Visakhapatnam. A land-based version of the K-15 Sagarika was successfully test-fired on 12 November 2008. A full range test of the missile was done on 11 March 2012. The twelfth and final development trial of the missiles was conducted on 27 January 2013. According to DRDO Director General V. K. Saraswat, the missile was again tested for its full range of 700 km and met all its objectives with a single digit impact-accuracy.The test will be followed by integration of the missile with INS Arihant. 

Article by Sandeep Unnithan and published in India Today

Pakistani Deterrence, Chinese Boats and Korean Missiles

Pakistani Deterrence, Chinese Boats and Korean Missiles

Chinese S 20 SSK

         Pakistan reaffirming its stand for a modernized naval force, has signed a deal with the Chinese for eight advanced diesel electric submarines equipped with AIP systems. The submarines will be built in a Chinese yard and will be delivered to Pakistan in the least possible time frame.

         Pakistan has stressed upon modernizing its aging and depleting naval force. Due to its limited defence outlay, Pakistan has reaffirmed its stand to modernize the underwater arm and to look at building naval vessels and has turned down reports of it acquiring an aircraft carrier. To a country which mainly depends on contribution and transfer of weaponry from USA to modernizing its force, this is an over stretch program in any means. America for well over a decade is trying with all its might to check the expansion the Chinese forces in the IOR and Pacific regions.

        With Pakistan aligning itself with the Chinese it has to be seen if America will really fund this ambitious project of Pakistan. China has been working with all its resources to lure the countries in the IOR to be part of it’s over ambitious “Pearl of String”. Pakistan has already drawn up plans with China to strength the mutual relationship they share, China has agreed to invest in developing Pakistan and has agreed to build roads to help connect Pakistan with central China which will help in developing the trade. The MOU signed for Chandar port  has strengthened the ties between the countries.

Is this a threat to the Indian Navy?

          Yes it is!! But it’s a threat India can handle and there is not many things India has to be concerned of. The P75 and P 75 I are slated to increase the Indian navy submarine warfare significantly. The under test Arihant and the other vessels of the class promise to provide India with a guaranteed Second strike capability and Indian navy is expected to get around four submarines of this class.  The submarines Pakistan will be opting for are conventionally powered subs and are basically hunter killer submarines and cannot perform deterrence patrol missions and come with their own set of drawbacks.


          These submarines can pose a serious threat to India’s CBG’s and forward operating vessels, but thanks to the superior Anti-submarine warfare measures the Indian navy is equipped with. The ASW has received importance, the commissioning of modern ASW vessels and the procurement of P8I long range surveillance aircrafts are a few measures the Navy has taken.

       The North Korean forces have successfully test fired a MRBM from an modified Diesel electric submarine, the exact platform used to test fire the missile is yet to be released, US had recently published images of modified North Korean submarines having two Silo's capable to launch large size ballistic missiles. But surprisingly the North Koreans fired a Russian made modified R 27 IRBM with more than 4000 kilometer operational range.





      This development has shocked the western bloc, while countries with access to advanced technologies are struggling to take minute steps in the field, North Korea has made a leap that could have needed years for the other countries. It’s debatable how the sanction imposed country could make such developments even as its citizens struggle for the basic amenities.  Chances of North Korea developing on its own are a very bleak possibility but at the same time outside help to the crippled nation is very much evident.

          Pakistan had initially floated tenders to acquire six submarines from the Chinese but over time the final numbers have increased to eight. China is believed to be offering the S-20 which is based on the Type-039A/Type-041 Yuan-class submarine and is believed to be developed for exports. The sub comes with VLS tubes for Launching YJ-2 (YJ-82) anti-ship missiles, arming the submarine with Pakistani missiles is possible, but most of the Pakistani Missiles have to be  redesigned to fit inside the submarine and the technology required is very demanding. Pakistan acquiring a second strike capability through these subs is very minimal and these submarines are not designed to be equipped with ballistic missile capabilities. The Koreans are known to have pacts with Pakistan and the international community strongly believes the involvement of the North Koreans in Pakistan nuclear program.

        The few questions which have plaques the minds of several countries will be answered soon once the Pakistani submarines surface and the questions of the Korean development will be shortly answered by the international community. It has to been seen if the Pakistani’s will ever with Koreans for they run their machines through the US treasury and involvement with the Koreans will surely bringing it to a grinding halt. 

Editor Karthik Kakoor

North Korean SLBM

Pakistani Agosta Boat

DPRK SLBM Test

K 4 SLBM

K 4 SLBM

Graphical representation of K 4 SLBM

screenshot from K 4 launch Video

Since years the Defense Ministry secretly carried out successful tests and improvements in a missile that can be launched from under water platform the Indian future Nuclear missile carriers Like Arihant SSBN and upcoming sister ships of Aridman SSBN. where arihant already finalizing it's Sea trials and Harbor acceptance Trails. soon  the Navy will induct in it's force. even no one knows whether they added or not. Arihant also a Secret project where DRDO didn't said any characteristics about INS Arihanth.

The K 4's range still not declassified but sources indicates it's range may be up to 6000 km. DRDO secretly carried out several test firing from underwater platoons. where all those Tests gives 100% results. even some suggests they test the missile from on-board INS Arihant too. but DRDO declined to comment such most classified Projects. the K 4 is a two stage Ballistic missile. during the last year march test it traveled more than 3000km  reported by some front line media.

The DRDO already have a small range Submarine launched   Ballistic missile called BO 5 whose range capped at 700 km. Housing a Ballistic missile in a submarine is a crucial tech due to  the height of the submarine it's hard to house such big sized Long Range missile. But DRDO proved it's intelligence by placing it and Test firing it successfully. as of now the Americans Russian french English and the Chinese only have such Long Range Operational SLBM's. but it's first DRDO bring India's Name into it's list.

as of now no other information about the K 4 revealed. those info gathered from media sources and a DRDO released video confirming K 4 launching

Artistic impression of INS Arihant Launching K 4 ©Saurav Chordia

another Art of Arihant with BO 5 and K 4

Leaked picture of INS Arihant SSBN