MMRCA Ver 2.0 Soon

MMRCA Ver 2.0 Soon

   There is a buzz doing the round at the Raksha Mantri establishment coming from a reliable source that government of India will soon announce a new MMRCA tender to procure some 90 Combat Jets under make in India scheme to replace the mother of all deals to procure 126 MMRCA which was officially scrapped some days back when the decision was intimated in written submission in parliament by the defense Minister.

   The new MMRCA tender to buy 90 combat Jets could be Light or a medium category or mix of both to be manufactured in India under Make in India campaign of the NDA govt. The present deal is not yet official and it's speculative in nature however the sources that leaked this information are very reliable.

   The real reason behind the cancellation of the earlier MMRCA deal or the Rafale deal is the cost issue, as French accepts all Indian conditions by transferring almost all top french latest state of the art technologies, they ask more money to transfer the said technologies. The actual Rafale deal was to buy 18 or a Squadron of fighters from French firm Dassault, the remaining balance some 108 numbers was to be built in India at HAL's production center, 50% of the deal value to be invested back in India, and 100% Transfer of Technology(ToT) under the make in India policy.

    Unfortunately because of the cost escalation, initial $12 billions to $15 billions, the government of India had issue with payment due to budgetary limitation, add to that was the bone of contention between HAL and Dassault. Dassault wanted to manage HAL's assembly line in India, where as HAL opposed Dassault's supervision in their work. Offset clause which Dassault disagreed was to take full responsibility of quality of HAL produced Rafale. A complex contract was under negotiation by both Vendors with no end in sight. Since IAF strongly pitches Rafale the reason being IAF's familiarity with the French made Mirage Aircraft for multi role mission more than the HAL made Su 30 MKI Aircrafts.

Let's look at the complex issues.

• The Government of India had budget limitation,
• HAL's wouldn't want direct Supervision,
• Dassault couldn't guarantee Aircraft's quality without direct supervision and
• IAF's was in urgent need of Multi role Combat Aircrafts

    The above negotiations hit the road block that led to the Government's cancellation of the earlier Rafale deal and went for a direct purchase of Rafale Aircraft. The direct purchase of the shelf of 36 Rafales has been valued around $5 billions including the weapon system (hundred each of MICA EM, IR and Meteor missile costs half a Billion, and the CNC ask Dassault to accommodate the Indian made Astra BVR missile in the Rafale's arsenal, that adds up additional cost while Countries like Egypt and Qatar signed deal within a month with Dasault it's only with India that the feal could not be finalised(We all know in the past during the UPA regime delay was amplified due to scam/kickback fear)

   The IAF insist the Government their requirement to field more than 8 squadrons of medium fighters as the current in principle arrangement of two squadrons is not enough.

    With the continuous pressure from the IAF, it's expected that the government will once again float a tender to acquire 90 aircrafts under make in India. It's clear that IAF will select the Rafale, there were many reasons why IAF selects the Rafale, from it's size to it's flying capability, multi role mission, 4++ generation platform etc. A simple example in favour of Rafale is most IAF hangers are built to house the early MiG variants, usually they are small and compact enough to fit in small size concrete shelters, but they don't have enough room to accommodate much larger fighters like Su-30 MKI.

    The Rafale is small in size which can perfectly fit in the existing shelters. Other Contenders like Sweden's Saab Gripen and MiG 35 is out of the race because of many reasons, in Gripen's case it's engine comes from the US and it's a single engine aircraft, when use in low level most single engine fighters have problems despite foreign objects in the jet intakes and jet air flow, but with the twin engines the survivability increases by 100%. The MiG 35 is still in production so combat worthiness is still a subject of debate Or in plain simple words it's not yet battle proven; there is no clear information about the AESA radar, major issues are the Russian Engine is not quite upto the mark when compare to their Western competitors, Russian electronic attack capabilities much lower than the western and American ones.

    The advantages of Russian Planes are they are more maneuverable than the western and American fighters and enjoy's aerodynamic superiority. Having said that those shortfalls were compensated by advance tracking and missile system possessed by the western and American fighter planes. If low cost fighter was the sole consideration the Mig 35 is the sure winner unfortunately IAF annual bill for maintenance cost more than the procurement cost as CAG Reports mentioned that and the combat readiness of the fighter Jets stays somewhere between 60% to 70%, meaning out of 100 numbers of MiGs which are operational only 60 or 70 are combat ready. For eg. if IAF asks the MiG 35 to do one more sortie before the Night, the ground crew will take another 2 hours to complete the ground clearance, the Rafale is the only fighter that can do more number of sorties than all other fighters, and can be configured quickly for different roles so it's a true multi role fighter.

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Update The Rafale Deal

Update The Rafale Deal

       

     New update on the Rafale deal, just after signing the Qatar Rafale deal the French defense minister Juan comes to Delhi and met his counterpart Manohar, both discussed about the possibility of Rafale deals, since most countries waiting to announce their decision due to the Indian MMRCA program, It's the Egypt who first announced the Rafale deal and within a days they signed the deal,

       Rafale manufacture Dassault also promised to deliver first two Rafales to Egypt this year, and the contract value available on the public domain, the deal valued $6 billions, but which include a $1.5 billions for Supplying a French built Fremm Frigate, by checking the Rafale Value Egypt gets the Rafale F 3 verison that's 4th Tranche of Rafale with AESA Radars. nothing but The Egypt deal is good, since they receive 24 Rafale's along with some Hundred MICA IR and EM missiles and ground support elements, and additional M88 Engines.

         After the Egypt deal India announced to scrap the existing MMRCA tender and goes for G-G deal for procure 36 Rafale, while initial reports mentioned the deal valued  $4.2 billions, seems it's also a Good deal, but no one knows the additional set of  supply, missiles and support, also PM promised in Paris that Government soon make the contract with Paris to supply Rafale fighters.

          Since no clear vision about the Rafale's actual value, last week Qatar announced and make an agreement with France to supply 24 Rafale F 3 fighters at the cost of some $7 billions, seems much high compared to other aircrafts, Qatar is the second foreign customer who buys the Rafale, also some insider report mentions the Deal include launching Qatari satellites from French Rockets, but no sources to confirm either deny it.

      In fighter Jet purchase, one should not buy just the Fighters, he also buys additional equipments,  that comes from missiles to spare engines, A Single Rafale Package includes A Fly away condition fighter with full F3 Standard, one spare Engine, upto 10 MICA IR and EM missile 5 METOR Missile, HUD, and support elements, while the country make an order of other Ground strike munitions like SCLAP EG, PGM later in huge numbers. a single MICA missile costs $2.5 millions, meteor also costs more than $2 millions, a single M 88 Spare engine costs approx $5 millions, and another millions of ground supports HUD's and maintenance. according to wiki single Flyaway F3 costs nearly $140 millions.

      So if we add all these above elements in a single F3 the cost tweaked over $180 millions, which means one F3 needs $180 millions to make sorties, so if we calculate Indian order with some factor of $180 million for a single package the total number 36 could reach $6.4 billions also with two or four simulators and some additional RBE 2 AESA, the deal value comes $7 billions.  where Economic times reported the deal valued nearly $8 billions, if their reports are correct India may add more number of Ground strike Munitions.

       Also it's the Economic times quoted that Juan offers 25% discount on Indian Rafale deal which can't be believable, since it's a huge amount could reach closely $2 billions,

      As per many news report France in talks with Indian Private companies to partner with Dassault  to make Rafale in India, which can decrease costs and also we get all available support of Rafale fleet whether it's mechanical or software issues/components.

          During the Mirage up gradation deal India almost spend nearly $1.2 billions to acquire  450 MICA IR and EM missile which can be fitted in the Mirage Aircraft, since it can't fire any other Russian or Indian Missiles due to OEM and IP. as per recent reports only some 40 Mirage 2000 TI are operational, and can do sorties, which means 450 is quite good numbers to arm the Mirages.

          The Rafale's primary BVR missile is the Metor missile, and it uses MICA EM for WVR and Mica IR for heat seeking all aspect missile, also it can't adopt any other Air to air missiles, But it can support some other Ground strike munitions such as Israeli American and French munitions, but yet again the Rafale can't fire Russian Ground strike missiles, so the dream of firing Brahmos missile always a dream, until if a Indian Private firm joined and build Rafale's in India with full Transfer of Technology.

Update June 2015 

The New Reports suggest that  French Defense Minister said in the Paris Airshow after talking with the HAL officials, that both government working closer to sign the Agreement, and said I will be there in India by coming months to sign the Rafale contract,

Once signed IAF will receive the First Rafale Aircrafts by 2017 Only. 

Breaking Rafale Deal

Breaking Rafale Deal 

63 Rafales under G-G contract 

       India is likely to buy about 60 Rafale combat jets from Dassault Aviation instead of 126 aircraft proposed in the original request for proposal (RFP) meant to be procured in under the process that began some eight years ago, highly placed sources told this writer.

        The decision to buy nearly three and a half squadrons (between 60-63 aircraft) of Rafale jets for the Indian Air Force (IAF) was taken at the highest political level hours before Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarked on his three-nation tour on Thursday, the sources added. Given the huge financial and operational implication, the government thought it prudent to take a strategic decision rather than leave it to a bureaucratic process.

       The French are likely to be told of this decision by the Prime Minister himself when he meets President Francois Hollande in Paris on Friday.

       Under the new proposal, the entire process for procuring 126 combat jets would be scrapped, sources revealed. A new G-to-G (government-to-government) contract is likely to be negotiated between New Delhi and Paris to buy around 60 Rafale jets in flyaway condition from France.

          According to top sources, this approach is being adopted for two primary reasons: one, it is imperative that the IAF gets these jets as soon as possible in view of the fast depleting numbers and two, because the impasse in the price negotiations. The entire procurement procedure for the combat jets has turned into a chaotic process thanks to the indecision on part of the political leadership in the previous regime and some loopholes in the negotiations itself making it impossible for the government to arrive at a satisfactory solution.

        India is likely to ask for lowering of the price per aircraft too when the G-to-G negotiations get underway. By ordering 60 aircraft to be manufactured in France itself, the government is also hoping to skirt the tricky issue of guaranteeing quality of work under Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL), designated as the Lead Production Agency in India.






        The government's drastic decision to scarp the torturous procurement process is aimed at augmenting the IAF's falling numbers as well as save about RS 60,000 crore in precious foreign exchange. The calculation is that the 60-odd aircraft would cost about RS 40-45000 crore to be paid out over next four-five years instead of over Rs one Lakh crore necessary to procure the original number of 126 combat jets.

Written by  Nitin A. Gokhale  in  News Warrior