FGFA aka PAK FA Update

FGFA aka PAK FA Update

   After hurdles and issues many sources quoting contradicting reports about the FGFA acquisition plans. The reports include low number of FGFA acquisition who leaving no details about PAK FA and more than 40% less contract value that means the amount decreases from initial $6 billion to some $3.7-$4 billions with the initial investment of $1 billion by both Russia and India.

    Two independent sources from Broadsword and Arming India confirmed that the deal value gradually decreased from the earlier agreed $6 billion into less than $4 billion. Both nations have to spend nearly $8 billion for the project. as already said the PAK FA is 50-50 work share for both India and Russia. while Russia already invested huge amount on the PAK FA project and awaiting India to invest the promised amount in the project.

   Once again, The PAK FA project is nothing but a significant advantage to the Russians, India buys the entire PAK FA research and development papers and technology for some $4 billions. Then build the same copy in Indian plants. Just like 100% Transfer of Technology. This allows India to modify or re engineer the PAK FA to design and develop the FGFA. The FGFA noting but a improved version of PAK FA with some Indian and Israeli components.

    Under the earlier plan in 2008. IAF plans to buy nearly 250 FGFA units and another 144 PAK FA from Russia. Later the same cut downed by some 50%. Means India buys 120 FGFA and 63 PAK FA units. Now the numbers once again downed by just some 60 FGFA units only. Same like how the Americans once planned for the Raptor production, later it went upto just some 187 units than the proposed 750 units.

   The IAF suspecting some glitches in the PAK FA. So they informed the authority to evaluate the PAK FA before investing into the Project. This is a precaution measure rather than falling in the trap just like the Su 30 MKI. The reason of MKI's low service availability is mentioned as lack of service spares from Russia and issues in the Engine. So IAF won't repeat the same once again.

    Some information's revealed that, India negotiating for the FGFA flyaway cost could be lesser than $200 million a piece. That means $4 billion for R&D, $300 million for PDC and XX number of FGFA into $200 million. so Typically the FGFA acquisition cost for some 60 units is estimated around $16 billions. that's just for FGFA acquisition only. The flying cost, missiles, spares are extra. A easy calculation for someone, 10 years life span plus total package of 36 Rafale negotiated between some $9 billions. Fly away cost for single Rafale F 3 R is some $100 million only.

    The Russians too not ready to induct the PAK FA in mass numbers. They plans to produce only 12 PAK FA units for just as trail squadron. Currently the Sukhoi developed nearly 11 PAK FA units for various testing. These prototypes being used to validate the PAK FA performance. The additional 12 PAK FA under the first LRIP may form as the trail squadron. and Russia plans to close the production line of till 2020.

    Many aviation experts suggest the PAK FA engine problem yet to be resolved. without solving the engine issues and radar reflections from engines, the 5th gen project won't complete. also many sources suggested the PAK FA's proposed engine may be ready by 2018. after testing the engine it is ready for mass production only after 2023.

    So Russia ordered more number of Su 35 S for the Russian Aerospace force. Actually there is no common difference in the Su 35 S and PAK FA except  those active sensor and processing systems in the PAK FA. meantime China and Pakistan are closely to get the Su 35 S in coming days. As Chinese Su 35 S orders in production line and the Pakistani's yet to sign the contract.

    Anyway till now India spend some $300 millions on the FGFA program. That India and Russia signs the PDC- Preliminary design contract. The contract details the, FGFA's detailed specifications and planned re works in the existing PAK FA platform.

   So far there is no confirmations from the government about the planned acquisition of FGFA or the PAK FA. How ever as I already said either India may walk away from the FGFA program or buy less number of FGFA.

PAK FA or the F 35 for Indian Air force

PAK FA or the F 35 for Indian Air force 

    After issues found in PAK FA Russia slowly move away from the project and insists India to driven the money to continue the project. India also not ready to sign the $6 billion R&D project with Russia before evaluating the capabilities of PAK FA. The IAF's backbone fighter Su 30 MKI currently facing problems due to lack of spares and support systems which was originated from Russia. This resulted the IAF to ground nearly half of the Su 30 MKI in grounds. So IAF won't make another risk with PAK FA.

    India wanted to buy some 63 PAK FA units directly from Russia, and further plans to build some 127  FGFA. It's clear if India wants just the PAK FA Russians are ready to sell them. Not only to India countries like Iran also keen to buy the PAK FA. However developing the FGFA in India means India needs to provide $6 billion to Russia for research and development.

    Government sanctioned the IAF to keep 42 squadrons of fighter jets. However half of the IAF squadron is vintage MiG aircraft's and half of them won't fly due to upgrades and lack of spares. The new procurement plans like Tejas, Rafale and PAK FA is also in doldrums. Which makes India to speed up procurement of new generation fighter jets.

      China confirmed their induction of 5th generation aircraft J 20 by thia year. China may deploy upto ten J 20 stealth air craft by this year followed by mass production in coming years. India plans to induct squadron of PAK FA before 2020, due to the delay in FGFA project. However new reports mentions that option also out of hands. Since Russia plans to produce only one squadron of PAK FA fighters and keep them in reserve. and focusing Su 35 S for air superiority needs.

    The reason behind the PAK FA issue is due to the lack of money. Russia waits so far to get money from India. However India refused to sign the R&D project. The Recent prime ministers visit to Moscow didn't mentions about the PAK FA program. that's a surprise to the Russians and Indians. However It's clear some kind of official talks about PAK FA should taken place regularly between Russia and India.

    On the other hand F 35 is a good option to buy. The F 35 is a much good aircraft, However there is much difference between PAK FA and F 35. Same like Rafale and Su 35. There is only one mission does the Russians prefer is counter air, that is offensive and defensive air mission. While Americans and west prefers Counter Strike options. that is Offensive and defensive ground mission.

    In one vs one fight F 35 and Rafale may loose against PAK FA and Su 35 S respectively. since the PAK FA and Su 35 is designed as counter air platforms. However when comes to pin point ground attack and penetrate mission F 35 and Rafale can score where PAK FA and Su 35 S can't.

    West and Americans invested heavily in Air defense batteries for counter air missions. The Patriot missile and Aster missiles are good examples. Western air defense batteries are long range and reliable. The Russians do have similar systems S 400 is a good example.

    However the Air borne platforms are must need to scan the air space from high. Since many aircraft's can fly very low and hide themselves from the Radar by flying the Radar's blind side. most of the West and US fighters designed as fly very low, unlike Russians fighters

   During Iraqi war the missiles are short range and need guidance to approach the target. Nowadays long range air to air missiles with active seekers can perform long range interception of upto some 250 kilometers. European fighters like Rafale, Gripen and Typhoon American fighter F 35 can carry such long range missiles. 

   The powerful AESA Radar's in above said fighters can detect small air to air missiles launched from VLO - Very low observable aircraft's like PAK FA and J 20, Which expose the presence of Stealth aircraft thus allows the Rafale and other to use their long range missiles for Intercepting the stealth aircraft.

   A typical scenario like a Rafale against PAK FA is, The Russians are running a CAP mission somewhere in Syria. The French on the other side is coming with Rafale armed with cruise missiles and PGM's along with MICA and Meteor Long range BVR missiles. The Rafale deployed in a mission to destroy a high value target inside Syria. Once the Rafale breached the Syrian air space the ground based radars will detect the Rafale and share the data with PAK FA running for CAP Mission.

    The PAK FA comes with IR guided missiles as well as BVR missiles. PAK FA scan the airspace using the Byelka main AESA Radar. If the PAK FA uses the main radar the Radar warning receivers in the Rafale alert the pilot about the presence of unknown threat from exact location of the PAK FA. 

    The situational awareness system in Rafale may keep on the frequency for further identifying the Target, and probably can launch the Meteor missile for long range interception. The detection range of Byelka is known as some 200 kilometers. Meteor is known as 250 km range and the Rafale's RBE 2 AESA also have similar range.

    If the PAK FA didn't use the main radar, and relay's in the Infrared search and Track system. This also allows the PAK FA to launch IR guided missiles like R 74. however the issue is the range of IRST. The detection range of IRST is very minimal, that is less than some 50 kilometers, same the R 74 missile too. If PAK FA used the Infrared systems then there is no chance of Rafale to survive, due to less reaction time and unknown location of missile origin.

   One more is the situation can change, If the Rafale detects the PAK FA using it's much improved OSF - Front sector Optronics ( french version of IRST in Rafale ). Then Rafale shoots first and kills it. One more is the RCS, There is many analysis confirm the RCS value of PAK FA is very lesser, who can be detected using active radars in close range. So if PAK FA comes close to Rafale then there is a chance of 50-50 to each of them.

   The same also goes with F 35 vs PAK FA. Here F 35 gets more advantage of detecting the enemy aircraft's using the optronics. The EOTS ( American version of IRST in F 35 ) in F 35 has pretty long range compared to all other similar system. The Range of EOTS mentioned and demonstrated it's capabilities upto some 150 kilometers. 

    It's clear the F 35 may lock the PAK FA at some 120 kilometers and launch the IR guided missile when the PAK FA comes close to some fifty kilometers. The Americans are studying to develop a long range IR guided missile which can be assisted by F 35 EOTS system roumered to be CUDA missile. If they succeeded then it would be a break through in air combat mission. Here F 35 can fire the first shot and escape first.

    If PAK FA uses the Byelka Radar and the F 35 too aware of the presence of PAK FA using RWR ( Radar warning Receiver ). The F 35 too turn on the AN APG 81 and scan for activities. Here the interesting matter is who gets detected first, The Stealth F 35 or the Stealth PAK FA. 

   When comes to Su 35 S the F 35 simply detect the enemy first and launch it's missile and kills it. It's clear the missiles hit the target and destroys it completely. There is no word what if Su 35 S turned back by evading the missile. One must remember new generation air to air missiles are more intelligent than the Fighter jets. Maneuvering figures and speed is good example of that.

    Here India need to counter the J 20 first, the Chinese going to deploy very soon or already deployed. Once the capabilities of J 20 exposed the Chinese may buy the PAK FA and throw it against IAF. It's clear the IAF face two kind of Russian modern jets like Su 35 S and PAK FA another two kind of Chinese stealth fighters like J 20 and J 31 deployed by both Pakistani Air force and Chinese Air force. The only option to counter them is deploying the F 35 Jets in IAF.

    The another F 35's performance is the ground attack capability, The F 35 can carry variety of guided missiles in it's Internal weapon bay. The Internal weapon bay is larger enough to accommodate  Anti shipping cruise missiles too. The Internal weapon bay can carry number of anti armour missiles like Brimstone and JAGM ( modern Hell fire Missile ) too. A good option to conduct surprise mission inside Pakistan and China without being detected.

   Actually the problem with the F 35 is the Full rate production starts only after 2018, So IAF may gets  the first batch by 2020 and operationalize it only after 2021.