Aftermath of Turkey shot down Russian Su 24 M

Aftermath of Turkey shot down Russian Su 24 M

    After the recent spur in Syria when Turkey shot downed a Russian Su 24. It's almost changed many things against FSA Rebels, Kurd Rebels and the ISIS. All three have  sponsors and have their own agenda which different from each other, which makes the Situation difficult to understand and solve through diplomatic routes. Kurds needs a separate country in Syria, Iraqi and Turkish Border, Islamic state need entire Middle east, and the FSA needs Freedom in Syria by toppling the dictator who gassed and killed nearly half a million innocent Syrians.

    Here each gets revenues from respective partners or sponsor. More than thirty five million Kurd peoples lives in the Iraqi, Iranian, Turkish and Syrian Borders. Their major goal is independent Kurdistan representing their own peoples. Majority of Kurds are Sunni Islamist's as well as some Shia minority living in Iranian borders. Another half a million Yazedi's living very closely to Iraqi borders. As said above they fighting against everyone, Like against Turkish, Free Syrian Army and the ISIS.

   Americans supporting the Kurdish close to Iraq and Syria to fight against ISIS. After Iraq, Kurd peoples in Iraq attacked most by ISIS. So here Kurd gets funded by Americans and the West to defend them from those brutal terrorists groups. On the other hand FSA gets funds from Middle east and west. and the So called ISIS gets fund from their own oils, which was smuggled through Kurd tribal area's via Turkey.

    Russians openly said, only after the shot down, It's the Turkey who buying ISIS oils. While Turkey blames Syrian Assad who gets cheaper oil from ISIS. Analysts confirms the ISIS extracted oil come to the Kurd Borders. and the bidding involved by Oil companies and some Nations as Russians told Turkey's Government, Who bids higher gets the oil, which was moved via Turkey or Syria to the ports.  Russians and Americans targeting those oil Trucks, However most of the Trucks are unable to  be traced.

    After the shot down, Russians deployed S 400 long range air defense batteries, That can track targets upto some 400 kilometers meantime it will engage airborne targets upto some 400 kilometer. The range can be covered entire Cyprus, Israeli Jerusalem and major Turkish cities which include NATO base Incrilik too. Makes each and every aircraft flying in the zone can be monitored and  targeted.

   This makes every foreign aircraft flying in Syria comes under the S 400 umbrella. Makes some NATO missions inside Syria also in troubles. Currently Some US, French Aircraft's conducting strikes inside Syria. Last four days there were very less airstrikes conducted by Collation aircraft inside Syria. Anyhow the S 400 in Syria won't make any real changes, However this makes sense of Russian plan to protect the Syrian airspace from rival aircraft's from NATO.

    Russia also warned Turkey to do not enter Syrian Air space, If Turkey do so Russians will strike the Turkish Air crafts. Actually Turkish Fighters comes inside Syrian Air space to attack Kurd Rebels. It's very rare. However this will happens occasionally. Last four days there were very less or zero Activities reported. While American F 15 C and Turkish F 16 D conducting Combat Air patrol in Turkish Border normally. Turkey also warns Russia to do not enter Turkish air space otherwise they will do the same.

   Russia almost broken all kind of military and economic cooperation's with Turkey.  This worsen Russian economic only. Since Russians export to Turkey is about some $25 billions every year. while Turkish export to Russia just $6 Billions. Which means economically worsen Russians sanctioning themselves. Russia almost lost it economic relation with west since the illegal annexation of Crimea and waging war in Eastern Ukraine.

    Anyway the situations will worsen only if Turkey and Russia clash each others in Black Sea or in Syrian border. unless there will be no more escalations in the Su 24 shot down. 

Russian Su 24 vs Turkish F 16

Russian Su 24 vs Turkish F 16

    The Syrian Civil war once again heat up with latest show down of Russian Su 24 shoot downed by a Turkish F 16 D. Tuesday Morning a Russian Su 24 M2 on a surveillance and reconnaissance mission over rebel held area in Northern Syria close to Turkey. Surveillance mission where conducted prior to bombing raids. The Northern Syria was under controlled by FSA, ISIS and Kurd Forces, all of them fighting against each other to capture grounds.

    Reports suggested a pair of Su 24 M2 fly very close to the Turkish air space. The Turkish Quick reaction forces launched two F 16 D fighters from nearby air force base to investigate the threat. Turkey said they warned atleast five times before shooting down the Russian Su 24. Many suggests the Su 24 M2 strayed the Turkish air space less than 17 seconds. A so called Wikileaks diplomat cable published a letter saying about the air space violation occurred only 17 seconds.

Letter posted by Wikileaks

     Analysts confirm that the Turkish F 16 fired a AIM 120 C from long Range, allows the fighter jet staying well inside Turkey before launching the missile, The TuAF fighter jets waited for the Su 24 M2 to enter Turkish air space and fired the AIM 120 C Missile.

    The AIM 120 C is a long range BVR missile with semi Active radar guidance. The Range of AIM 120 is more than some 100 kilometers. The missile can be guided by the F 16's Radar. and can use onboard sensor once the missile visually identify the target for high interception probability. Most of the CAP mission uses the Radar guided missile to ensure the safety of the launch aircraft. This allows little room for the enemy aircraft to out maneuver the missile and brake the missile lock.

     The Fighter jets can easily evade such long range missiles by many ways. By using ECM,Jamming,  chaff's and aircraft maneuvers. The Russians once claimed the Su 24M2 blind the USS Donald Cook's high power AN/SPY 1 AESA Radar outside Black Sea. The poor propaganda was spread by most pro Russians to cheer the Russian break through in jammers. However Military analyzers debunked the Russian claim by saying no one can defeat the Physics.

The Turkish claim of Su 24 M2 Shoot down

   The Su 24 M2's Radar warning receives and Missile approach warning receivers may alert the Crew about the incoming missile. And the onboard Jamming system will try to jam the missile's radar seeker using the high power radio frequency. But failed, Next they will try to out maneuver the  missile by maneuvering the jets to broke the lock, But again failed. At last they must launch the countermeasures to confuse the Missile. However the Su 24M2 failed to deploy countermeasures too.

Flames after Su 24 M2 hit by AIM 120C

  This proves the Russian fighters are poorly equipped to fight in modern battles. while the Americans improved much in missile seeker and ECCM techniques. The Russian state media and official Ministry of defense claimed their fighters performing very well in Syria. However this incident shown there is no notable achievements in Russian Fighter Aircraft technology.

    The Su 24 M2 is not a air superiority or multi role fighter jets, It's a Ground attack and Nuclear strike bomber. The Su 24 M2 don't have a onborad radar for scanning the airspace, Air Force analysts Avitionist.com once published photos of Russian Su 24 using America GPS Navigation, However it uses the Electro optronics to fire Infrared guided close combat missiles like R 73 and R 60 both are fire and forget short range missiles used for dog fighting.     

   The Russians need to send Su 30 SM to conduct mission close to Hostile presence area. that can perform such aerial combat missions. Otherwise they need a multi role fighter aircraft like the western Rafale or EFT, Which is suited best for conducting reconnaissances as well as combat air missions. Anyhow this a small lesson to Russian origin Aircraft operators about the capabilities of Russian fighter jets in real battlefield.

   Warnings were issued to foreign aircraft's when they fly very close to sovereign air space, Early in 2012 Indian Su 30 MKI Fighter jets fly close to Chinese border in Arunachal pradesh in a special mission, Within a second Chinese radar picked up Indian Air force activity's close to the border, So they too dispatched a pair of Su 27 to confront Indian jets. However Indian fighter jets fly 30 km off from International Border and never tried to breach the Chinese air space. Later both of them turn back and continue their mission without violating others air space.  

    The Russians on other side flying very close to Baltic Nations Air space, Even nuclear armed Russian bombers flown very close to European countries, However they never entered their Air space. The EU and other Baltic Nations scrambles their fighters to intercept the Russian Jets and Bombers before they violating Sovereign air space. More than hundreds of such scrambles happens in last few months. However there were no shoot down or dangerous maneuvers reported.

   Back in 2012, A Turkish RF 4 E Phantom Reconnaissance plane fly very close to Syrian Air space. Without any warnings the Syrian SAM Batteries fired and shoot down the F 4 killing the two pilots. The Turkish plane violated the Syrian air space by entering their territorial waters. However no warnings or anything issued.