What's happening in the Rafale Deal

What's happening in the Rafale Deal

    Various media sources in India are quoting different details about the Rafale deal finalization, At first India Today stated " All the issues were sorted, and the Rafale deal will be signed on Jan 26 ". The Economic times also quoted the same by pointing the Reuters Report. Days ago another media Business line quoted the Rafale Deal still in papers,citing the same old Offset issue, and last day Times of India also quoted the same what Business line said,

     The Economic times posted another story of cost issue, citing the National security advisor Doval is in Paris, who discuss about global war against terrorism, and the recent air force base attack, Who also accompanied by some key Rafale negotiation team to fine tune the deal, ET Reported as per their sources, The deal value cross over $9 billions or so for the 36 fly away Rafale.

    The Reuters posted a news in Monday quoting Defense minister, who said the deal expected to be signed in on or before the Republic day parade. Hence it looks like the words are not clear, Defense minister never said the deal all set for signature, unlike what livefist and India today quoted.

    India Today in Dec 26 Reported that " India and France will sign the Rafale deal in Jan 25, also says the all the fighters will be delivered within next seven years. However they didn't mentions about the person who said above details to India Toady. Later in Jan 10, Livefist quoted almost the same what India Today said, saying the deal will be signed on Jan 25.

     Live fist also said another DAC meet scheduled on January 18, will give go ahead call for the Rafale deal, to sign the contract. However Livefist failed to mention the key body of the contract, The Cabinet committee and Finance ministry, Live fist also said the French defense minister will comes to India before the President's arrival to recheck the contracts.

    Times of India said, The DAC meets on Sunday discussed about the Rafale deal, who also says still there is some issues to clear the Rafale deal, who citing the offset clause as major issue in the deal. The ToI mentions defense ministry sources, Who says "It's highly unlikely the Rafale deal will be Signed on Jan 26". They also said the deal won't be signed on the eve of Republic day.

    ToI also published the issues are almost solved in virtually, and the commercial negotiation takes another two to three weeks, next the Cabinet Committee approval, followed by Finance ministry approval. So these procedures could take another one or more months. ToI quoting unnamed defense ministry sources saying France will invest only 30% of the deal value in India. India negotiated upto 50%.

    On the other side Economic times on Jan 13, reported a whooping value of $9 billions for 36 Rafales, ET said the figures comes from authoritative sources. They are the one who mentioned the Doval's France visit also covers the Rafale talks too.  Even ET couldn't confirm the deal value may include weapon packages or not.

    Days ago here in this blog, I quoted from various open sources across from French and India, The actual deal value of 36  Rafale F 3 fly away units sets for close to some €5 billion which include spares, support systems, Base modification and Missile systems. The actual price per Rafale is negotiated at some €70 millions, for 36 units it crosses some  €2.7 billions. so half of the amount could be spend for base modifications, weapons, and spare parts. From the beginning the french sources said The deal value is remain same for F 3 units quoted in 2012. when Rafale announced as  L 1 as MMRCA.

    So far half of Indian media saying the deal in doldrums, half of them saying the deal is all clear to sign in Jan 26. There is no idea whom to be believed

Rafale Deal confirmed, Contract Papers shared

Rafale Deal confirmed, Contract Papers shared

      Sources from both India and France confirms that India orders the first batch of 36 Rafale's from Dassault, The details of the agreement already shared with French and Indian authorities respectively. Sources close to France said, The actual contract value is some €5 billion which include spares, support systems, Base modification and Missile systems. IAF yet to select the Air bases who hosts the Rafale squadron.

     It's highly unlikely the first two squadron could be placed close to New Delhi, where future orders may deployed close to borders, The 36 numbers are very small when comes to operating manner,  Maintaining 70% of service availability also a major problem. As IAF also pushing the government to buy more number of Rafale platforms in future under make in India program.

    The total deal value is still under the first negotiated price of $ 5.7 billions and there is no price escalation on it. Each Rafale aircraft negotiated at some €70 millions in fly away condition. Half of the deal value is spend on buying missiles and spare parts to keep the Rafale running for next 40 years without ant shortage of supply.

     The Rafale is obviously a costlier plane, same like other European products, So the missiles also costs too much. IAF is so much impressed with the performance of MICA missile series. Each MICA missile costs around some $3 millions. Earlier in 2012 IAF bought more than 500 MICA Missiles under some $1.3 billion deal.

     Those 500 new missiles are brought to equipped in the newly upgraded Mirage fleet. IAF operates nearly fifty Mirage 2000 aircraft. Each mirage can carry nearly six modern MICA Missiles. MICA comes in two modes one is IR- for WVR another is EM for BVR mission.

 

    The Rafale also carry the same MICA Missiles, IAF may spend some $1 billion for MICA missiles and another $1 billion for Meteor long range BVR missile, Meteor is known as one of the best available long range BVR missile.

     India may also buy some hundreds of Exocet anti shipping cruise missile along with Rafale, However there is no information of that purchase. Since IAF uses the Russian Kh 35 missile on it's Su 30 MKI and Harpoon missile on its Jaguar fleet.

    Also It's clear India may purchase thousands of AASM guided bombs along with the Rafale purchase. Rafale's superior ground attack performance is scored by those guided bombs with Damocles NG pod, With the addition of more number of guided bombs may increase the IAF's option of providing effective fire support to ground forces and ground targets.

    Sources also confirms the official contract signature between the Indo French authorities will be signed day after the Republic day celebration and within a week IAF will send it's team to France to get hands on experience and training on the Rafale aircraft.

Rafale slowly moving away from India

Rafale slowly moving away from India

    Recent information's from Defense ministry, It looks like Rafale and it's associated company's slowly moving away from the earlier proposed deal, Since India failed to negotiate the French team even after very long time consumed by both sides. India first announced to buy a 126 Rafale and additional 72 as Make in India program whose deal value estimated around $12-$15 billions. Which makes one of the finest deal for Indian defense industry and the user Indian Air force. However the ministry suggests the deal value over priced and Rafale's negligence to joining with HAL tampered the progress of So called Indian MMRCA tender.

    India selects HAL as primary Indian supplier of Rafale, However France is not impressed with HAL's primary operating structure, and suggested some other private players to be roped in for Rafale Production line in India. The ministry rejects the French suggestion and insists HAL will be the Primary partner of Dassault. France also said, if HAL will be selected Dassault officials may supervise the HAL's performance and  Build Quality.

    HAL rejected the French's supervise in their work, However the Initial understanding as per the RFP, The  Rafale's quality and warranty should taken care by the French's Dassault. Which means Dassault will taken care of HAL produced Rafale too. French refused the plan and shelved the negotiations. Which considered most critical part and the reason of cancelling the MMRCA.

   Due to the failure of Initial warranty and over price issue, India plans to buy some 36 Rafale Fighters directly from France without any know how technology transfer, As Prime minister's initial motto of Make in India in each and every defense procurement also buried. Prime Minister announced Indian option of buying 36 Rafale directly from France without any ToT or nothing. Unlike the user IAF wants some other options along with ToT.

     The Indian Air force wants the Rafale must equipped with Ingeniously made Astra long range BVR missile and Stand off cruise missile Brahmos. French side agreed the IAF's proposal and ask additional money for customizing the aircraft. The contract negotiation committee rejected the cost escalation and stay with the announced deal value. The French side refused and said they will deliver the Rafale F3 just how France operating without adding Astra and Brahmos. However the user IAF not satisfied about the shortcomings in the Rafale Fighter aircraft's capability without coming with Astra and Brahmos .

    

The contract negotiation committee also proposed 50% of offset in the deal. France refused the Suggestions and said they will invest only 30% of the deal value in India. However later some reports suggested that France agreed Indian proposal of 50% of deal value money to be invested back in India. The major roadblock kicked and both side moved towards next line of contract negotiations.

    Days ago Indian defense minister said the Rafale deal is in final stages of price negotiations, which is reported by Economic times. However there is no clear information about the offset issue and deal value finalization. Which makes the deal still hanging. Minister also confirms that 50% offset issue almost sorted out. However minister didn't said it is finalize.

     Minister also confirms that only 36 Rafale's will be procured under government to government contract. There is no additional numbers are planned. However some Air force officials believes that the 36 numbers makes logistics issue and makes no wonder in Combat or any other operations. So it could be another 36 or more will come under Make in India initiative. They also cited the French aerospace involvement in Indian  defense sectors.

    Safron is the Company who delivering Sneccma M88 Engines to the Rafale Aircraft and invested a Indian assembly line to produce the engines in India. They plans to make Engine parts and assembly line in India to meet the Indian needs of more engines to the first announced MMRCA tender. Reports from Bloomberg cited Safron confirmed they shelved the Indian assembly line plans due to low number of Rafale orders. Which is considered a major drawback in the Rafale deal.

   The same news quoting officials circled all over the media since two years, yet no clear changes in the ground, Which makes India might move away from the deal otherwise French will walk away from the Deal. Even after Indian announcement, Qatar and Egypt singed Rafale deal with France and Egypt operating three units of Rafale's.

Update The Rafale Deal

Update The Rafale Deal

       

     New update on the Rafale deal, just after signing the Qatar Rafale deal the French defense minister Juan comes to Delhi and met his counterpart Manohar, both discussed about the possibility of Rafale deals, since most countries waiting to announce their decision due to the Indian MMRCA program, It's the Egypt who first announced the Rafale deal and within a days they signed the deal,

       Rafale manufacture Dassault also promised to deliver first two Rafales to Egypt this year, and the contract value available on the public domain, the deal valued $6 billions, but which include a $1.5 billions for Supplying a French built Fremm Frigate, by checking the Rafale Value Egypt gets the Rafale F 3 verison that's 4th Tranche of Rafale with AESA Radars. nothing but The Egypt deal is good, since they receive 24 Rafale's along with some Hundred MICA IR and EM missiles and ground support elements, and additional M88 Engines.

         After the Egypt deal India announced to scrap the existing MMRCA tender and goes for G-G deal for procure 36 Rafale, while initial reports mentioned the deal valued  $4.2 billions, seems it's also a Good deal, but no one knows the additional set of  supply, missiles and support, also PM promised in Paris that Government soon make the contract with Paris to supply Rafale fighters.

          Since no clear vision about the Rafale's actual value, last week Qatar announced and make an agreement with France to supply 24 Rafale F 3 fighters at the cost of some $7 billions, seems much high compared to other aircrafts, Qatar is the second foreign customer who buys the Rafale, also some insider report mentions the Deal include launching Qatari satellites from French Rockets, but no sources to confirm either deny it.

      In fighter Jet purchase, one should not buy just the Fighters, he also buys additional equipments,  that comes from missiles to spare engines, A Single Rafale Package includes A Fly away condition fighter with full F3 Standard, one spare Engine, upto 10 MICA IR and EM missile 5 METOR Missile, HUD, and support elements, while the country make an order of other Ground strike munitions like SCLAP EG, PGM later in huge numbers. a single MICA missile costs $2.5 millions, meteor also costs more than $2 millions, a single M 88 Spare engine costs approx $5 millions, and another millions of ground supports HUD's and maintenance. according to wiki single Flyaway F3 costs nearly $140 millions.

      So if we add all these above elements in a single F3 the cost tweaked over $180 millions, which means one F3 needs $180 millions to make sorties, so if we calculate Indian order with some factor of $180 million for a single package the total number 36 could reach $6.4 billions also with two or four simulators and some additional RBE 2 AESA, the deal value comes $7 billions.  where Economic times reported the deal valued nearly $8 billions, if their reports are correct India may add more number of Ground strike Munitions.

       Also it's the Economic times quoted that Juan offers 25% discount on Indian Rafale deal which can't be believable, since it's a huge amount could reach closely $2 billions,

      As per many news report France in talks with Indian Private companies to partner with Dassault  to make Rafale in India, which can decrease costs and also we get all available support of Rafale fleet whether it's mechanical or software issues/components.

          During the Mirage up gradation deal India almost spend nearly $1.2 billions to acquire  450 MICA IR and EM missile which can be fitted in the Mirage Aircraft, since it can't fire any other Russian or Indian Missiles due to OEM and IP. as per recent reports only some 40 Mirage 2000 TI are operational, and can do sorties, which means 450 is quite good numbers to arm the Mirages.

          The Rafale's primary BVR missile is the Metor missile, and it uses MICA EM for WVR and Mica IR for heat seeking all aspect missile, also it can't adopt any other Air to air missiles, But it can support some other Ground strike munitions such as Israeli American and French munitions, but yet again the Rafale can't fire Russian Ground strike missiles, so the dream of firing Brahmos missile always a dream, until if a Indian Private firm joined and build Rafale's in India with full Transfer of Technology.

Update June 2015 

The New Reports suggest that  French Defense Minister said in the Paris Airshow after talking with the HAL officials, that both government working closer to sign the Agreement, and said I will be there in India by coming months to sign the Rafale contract,

Once signed IAF will receive the First Rafale Aircrafts by 2017 Only. 

36 Fly away Rafales for India

36 Fly away Rafales for India 

     The Prime Minister of India asked the French President to deliver 36 Rafale Aircraft's as soon as Possible, that means The PM wants those 36 Rafales quickly.

          The deal wasn't signed yet, but the Joint Announcement made the 36 Numbers, that's why there is no information about Price, Model, Delivery and Weapon Pacakages. 

         The French President Hollande said Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian would travel to India soon to finalise the deal.

            Also Dassault Cheif Eric Trappier also feels good about the Deal of Supplying Rafales to 60 years of long time customer India. 

        Some Indian Defence Officials said this contract is different from MMRCA, and the MMRCA still negotiations, 

          Some sources said the MMRCA grow from 126 to 144 , while the 18 Fly away condition Rafale doubled by 36. 

    The Rafael Model Expected as F 3 Version, also comes with Bunch of Weapons Package, along with Powerful RBE 2 AESA Radar  

      the Deal not yet signed, but the rush of urgency, IAF would recive atleast two Rafales before the End of the Year.

          Also some French Sources said, Dassault could deliver the current Indian, Egypt French Orders before 2019. 

         There were plenty of very important Nuclear, Energy, Counter Terrorism Agreements also Signed.