Sunday, August 23, 2015

The Chinese Offensive power: How India counters

The Chinese Offensive power: How India counters

     The Chinese are way advanced in both conventional and unconventional warfare as compared to India, although India gets strategic advantage by geographic positions with American and Asian-Pacific support. Even if Chinese flex their naval and air power, India has to use all her resources to stop the Chinese. This would mean that Indian forces have to take defensive measures instead of offensive attacks across the borders. Both China and India have adopted the NO-First use policy and hence we cannot use ballistic missiles as launching an AGNI missile would be considered as a nuclear capable missile. To counter China, Indian forces need to prepare a fully unconventional warfare as China has enough firepower to defeat India using their unconventional weapons.

    India gets geographic advantage from all sides, from Kashmir to Arunachal, and an expansive shoreline, also it's clear that Chinese usage of ground units could be limited because of logistical support. Mountainous terrain in the north can be accessed by helicopters only to provide soldiers with logistics support, both on the Indian and Chinese sides. A stand-off between India and China in 2013 at Doulat Beg Oldie threw open many questions, where both the Chinese and Indians got supply by only Helicopter. Indian Ground based AAA and MANPAD systems can effectively counter the Chinese supply line, the same can be done from Chinese side too. It is clear that China would not try a ground offensive attack. 

    As already predicted, the next Indo-Chinese war would take place only in the air and sea. Both countries have been extensively modernizing their fleet. Currently, the Chinese can easily outnumber and outgun the Indian Navy in the Bay of Bengal. Hence it is imperative that India ought to attack the Chinese fleet before they enter the Bay of Bengal. If China is to use the narrow Straight of Malacca to enter the Bay of Bengal, India has a better strike capability.

    Chinese ships can come through Indonesia, albeit, Indonesians are not in good relations with the Chinese. It is not expected of Indonesians to go on an offensive with Chinese forces as they will be vastly outnumbered. India can support the Indonesian forces, where the war will shift focus from Straight of Malacca to far South China Sea, where Chinese forces will be at an advantage. However, India can use the Nicobar Command to counter the Chinese with their fighter jets and fast attack crafts to ambush the Chinese fleet. 

     Meantime, India can seek help from the Americans, from their super carriers; one or two Carrier Strike Group comprised by some 40 US ships, can help India to manage the blockade and ambush for several days or sinking entire Chinese naval ships. Chinese will be irked by US involvement. Even if China tries to attack the US allies in Pacific, they will pay a hefty price for that, since South Koreans and Japanese can counter attack the Chinese forces. Both the South Korean and Japanese forces are more powerful and have battle experience. It doubtful that China could use its forces to attack Pacific nations and India too should not expect the Pacific nations to attack the Chinese first.

    India can withstand a war even without US battle groups. That won't last for many days, so need of the US support is a must. USA may not offer Indian forces support because of cold war and communism allies. China can always replenish their ammunition from Russia in many fronts. The war can happen in the Europe too, if India seeks help openly. US intervention forces the Russians to help the Chinese. If India wins a war against China with help from USA, Indo American relations will get stronger, and that will certainly affect Russian Interests in India.

A quite interesting fact, Chinese and Indian warship ratio is 10:3

Editor Darren Julian Pinto

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